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☕️ GM Munchers! I had one moment of genuine optimism about my portfolio this weekend. One moment. Iran apparently monitors my emotional state in real time and responded yesterday accordingly.

On today’s menu:

• 📉 The Market Just Got a Cold Bucket of Oil Thrown on It

• 🚢 Norwegian Cruise Just Threw Its Full-Year Guidance Overboard

• 😏 An Analyst Thinks This Stock Could Climb 35%

• 🎮 GameStop's eBay Bid Is Already Falling Apart

• 🥳 Bitcoin Hit $80,000 For The First Time in 6 Months

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

📉 The Market Just Got a Cold Bucket of Oil Thrown on It

Stocks spent Friday hitting all-time highs. Yesterday, Iran set a UAE oil port on fire.

Iran launched drones and missiles at the UAE, setting ablaze a major oil hub at Fujairah port. The US Navy sank Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump went on Fox News and told Iran it would be "blown off the face of the earth" if it keeps targeting ships. Normal Monday stuff.

The market did not take it well. Here is what moved:

• 🛢️ Brent crude ripped nearly 6% and settled above $114 a barrel. WTI surged above $106. This is the most serious escalation since the ceasefire was declared four weeks ago.

• 📉 Stocks sold off across the board. Energy was the only sector that closed green. Everything else, including Materials and Industrials, got hit hard.

• 🚢 Iran attacked multiple ships in the Gulf, including vessels from South Korea and the UAE. Global shipping just got a lot more expensive and a lot more dangerous overnight.

Right now, the market has one question and one question only. Does this ceasefire hold or does this become a full resumption of war? Everything else, earnings, the Fed, GameStop buying eBay, is noise until that gets answered.

The Munch Take: We’ve said it almost daily. The market has been pricing in perfection and yesterday was far from perfect. Oil at $114 is already crushing airlines, retailers, and anyone whose business model requires moving things. My wife asked if we should cancel our summer trip. I told her to wait and see. She started looking at train schedules. She may be right again.

🚢 Norwegian Cruise Just Threw Its Full-Year Guidance Overboard

Speaking of reconsidering summer travel, $NCLH dropped 8.56% yesterday after slashing its full-year guidance. The culprit is the same one destroying everything else right now. Oil.

Norwegian runs its ships on fuel. Lots of it. With Brent crude sitting above $114 a barrel and no clear end to the Iran conflict in sight, the math on running a cruise line stops working fast. Softer consumer demand is piling on top of that.

📈 The Bull Case:

• The Iran conflict won’t last forever and when it ends, oil will dop, and cruise demand might snap back hard. Pent-up travel demand is real.

• Norwegian has strong forward bookings and brand loyalty. A bad quarter is not a broken business.

• The stock is now meaningfully cheaper than it was last week.

📉 The Bear Case:

• Oil at $114 is not a temporary headwind. It is a sustained margin killer.

• Consumers under pressure from inflation are cutting discretionary spending. A cruise is the first thing to go.

• This guidance cut may not be the last one.

The Munch Take: Norwegian runs a fine product. The ships are great. The drinks are overpriced but you still order them. Nobody is disputing the cruise experience. The problem is this stock has gone absolutely nowhere in five years, and now it is sitting in the middle of a Middle East war with zero control over its biggest cost. Iran does not negotiate on behalf of Norwegian's fuel bill. Until oil comes down and the Strait reopens, this is not a stock you want to own.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

🪙 $CRCL and $COIN ripped 20% and 6% respectively after revised stablecoin legislation moved forward in Congress. If you’ve been a long-time reader, you know we're bullish on Coinbase and bought the stock in 2025 at $160. It’s now sitting around $200.

💾 $SNDK jumped 5.8% after Bernstein analysts slapped a $1,700 price target on the stock. That is 35% higher than where it closed today. Bernstein is feeling bold.

🐔 $TSN Tyson Foods rose nearly 8% after posting better-than-expected quarterly results. Turns out people are still buying chicken no matter what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz.

💰 $BRK.B slipped after Berkshire disclosed a record $397 billion cash pile and confirmed zero plans to spend it. Buffett is sitting on a mountain of cash and doing absolutely nothing with it. He has done this before. The man thinks in centuries.

📦 $FDX and $UPS cratered 9% and 10% respectively after Amazon unveiled a competing supply chain service. Two drowning swimmers. One new shark in the water.

🤖 $PLTR crushed earnings with 85% revenue growth. That is the company's fastest growth rate since going public in 2020. The data business is not slowing down.

STOCK OF THE DAY

🎮 GameStop's eBay Bid Is Already Falling Apart

Ryan Cohen announced the most audacious takeover bid of 2026 on Sunday night. By yesterday afternoon, his own stock was down nearly 10%.

That is the market's version of a slow clap.

Here is where things stand. eBay confirmed it received the unsolicited proposal but made clear there had been zero prior discussions or outreach from GameStop before the offer landed. Cohen went on CNBC Monday morning and essentially confirmed that. "We are just starting," he said. eBay's board has not responded. $EBAY is trading around $109, well below the $125 offer price, which tells you exactly how seriously the market thinks this deal will close.

Then Michael Burry, the Big Short guy, sold every share of $GME he owned. Yesterday. The timing was not subtle.

The market is sending Cohen a clear message. Announcing a $56 billion deal for a company that is nearly five times your size, with no prior conversations, half the payment in your own meme stock, and zero board support is not a negotiation. It is a press release with ambition.

Cohen says he can slash $2 billion in annual costs and make eBay a legitimate competitor to Amazon. Maybe. But first he has to get someone at eBay to actually pick up the phone.

The Munch Take: Cohen turned a dying mall retailer into a $9 billion cash pile through sheer force of will. He has earned the right to swing big. But the market is not buying this one yet, literally or figuratively. My wife sold a lamp on eBay last year for $40 and said it was "not worth the hassle." She may have just predicted the outcome of this entire deal.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Tuesday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 👀 5 Space Stocks Positioned to Win Before SpaceX Goes Public (Ad)

2. 🥳 Bitcoin hit $80,000 for the first time in 6 months.

3. 😂 Trump is posting his stock market gains.

4. 💰️ A billionaire’s 44-minute masterclass on money.

5. 😬 This stock keeps getting destroyed.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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