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- 📉 The Market’s Bipolar Episode Continues
📉 The Market’s Bipolar Episode Continues
Pip Munch
November 12, 2025
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On today’s menu:
📉 Markets Rally, Bitcoin Bleeds, Gold Wobbles
😭 Everybody’s Getting a Second Job
🍟 The McRib Is Back & That Means One Thing
❌ PayPal Is Having A Rough Year
😬 Job Market Pessimism Is Rising
Yesterday’s numbers:
S&P 500 | 6,846 | +0.21% |
Nasdaq | 23,468 | -0.25% |
Dow Jones | 47,927 | +1.18% |
Bitcoin | $103,100 | -2.64% |
BREAKING NEWS
🧠 The Market’s Bipolar Episode Continues
It was another rollercoaster Monday.
Stocks opened red after yet another mixed jobs report — but then the Dow staged an insane 500-point comeback while the Nasdaq lagged behind like that one friend still holding AI bags from March.
ADP dropped some ugly news: for the four weeks ending Oct 25, private sector job creation was down more than 11,000 per week. Translation? The labor market’s losing steam faster than my motivation after a losing trade.
Still, the Dow’s rally shows traders are rotating into value stocks while the high-flyers — especially CoreWeave, which tanked 15% — are getting reality-checked. The “AI bubble” phase might finally be entering the hangover stage.
The Munch Take:
This is classic late-cycle behavior. Value > growth, defensives > hype. Stick to high-cash-flow names and keep your FOMO leash short — especially if your wife’s already asked how much you “invested” in AI.
💀 Bitcoin’s Still Bleeding
Bitcoin dropped almost 3%, inching dangerously close to the $100K support — and you could feel the collective “not again” across the crypto world.
It’s not just BTC either. Coinbase fell 3% and Strategy — Michael Saylor’s company — slid 1.5%, now down nearly 50% from July highs.
Why the pain? ETF outflows, macro uncertainty, and traders doing what they always do — panic-selling right before the next rebound.
The Munch Take:
This is a “clean up the weak hands” moment. BTC’s holding up way better than riskier crypto funds, which tells you the market’s flushing leverage, not faith. If $100K holds, expect a bounce. If it doesn’t… maybe it’s time to dust off your “long-term investor” speech again.
🥇 Gold Can’t Catch a Break (But It’s Trying)
Gold had itself a little redemption arc yesterday — down early, then bouncing back 0.3% by the close. The hero? A weaker dollar, which slipped 0.2% on the day.
At this point, the government shutdown story is like a sequel nobody asked for. The odds of it ending this week are sitting at 95% on Polymarket, which means traders have fully moved on. It’s officially become a buy the rumor, sell the news event — and now, nobody cares.
So why the dollar drop? The ugly jobs data from ADP. The weaker report pushed December rate-cut odds up to 72%, giving gold the fuel it needed to claw higher.
The Munch Take:
Gold’s move shows traders are still glued to rate expectations, not headlines. We’re not fully priced for a December cut yet, so expect more volatility if Powell sneezes, blinks, or says the word “data.”
Translation? Gold’s not done swinging. Buckle in.
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MARKET SENTIMENT
📉 Everybody’s Getting a Second Job (Even the Economy)
New data from Kalshi shows Google searches for “second job” just hit an all-time high, and that’s… not exactly bullish.
The platform now puts the odds of a recession at 34% by 2026 — and if you’ve seen your grocery bill lately, that number feels low.
Here’s what it really means: people are feeling the squeeze.
Wages aren’t keeping up with inflation, savings are shrinking, and consumers — the backbone of the U.S. economy — are clearly running out of gas. When people start working two jobs to afford one life, spending slows, and that’s when the ripple effect hits everything from corporate earnings to market confidence.
Traders are watching this closely because consumer health drives 70% of GDP. Weak wallets = weak markets.
The Munch Take:
It’s not doomsday yet, but sentiment is shifting. The “soft landing” narrative only works if people can afford to land. If this trend keeps up, expect more defensive plays — think gold, utilities, and even Bitcoin (the “escape hatch” trade) — to start stealing the spotlight again.
Also, shoutout to whoever searched “third job.” You’re the real MVP.
MARKET OVERVIEW
🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers
🍖 $MCD
The McRib is back, baby. And apparently, so is Bitcoin? Every McRib comeback since 2020 has lined up with a BTC rally. Not saying pork sandwiches move markets… but correlation > causation, right?
💻 $SFTBY
SoftBank just dumped its entire $5.8B stake in Nvidia to go all-in on OpenAI — aka the company behind ChatGPT. Nvidia dropped 2.5% on the news. Imagine being dumped so your ex can chase your smarter, younger cousin.
💳 $PYPL
PayPal’s had a brutal year, down 20%, but they’re trying to win hearts (and wallets) back. They’re launching “Buy Now, Pay Later” in Canada — letting people split $30–$1,500 purchases into 4 interest-free payments. Because nothing says economic health like more debt with better branding.
🍔 $WEN
Wendy’s is shutting down hundreds of U.S. stores after sales fell 4.7%. Honestly, it might be karma for the square burgers. The market likes round things — charts, coins, patties…
🚀 Pre-Market Fuel
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