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☕️ GM Munchers! Spent the whole rainy weekend inside waiting for a break in the clouds. I’m sure it will arrive at exactly 9am today, which is the weather equivalent of a stock ripping the second after you sell.

On today’s menu:

• ☕️ A Tense Weekend & A Loaded Week

• ❗️ The Most Important Number Is Flashing Red

• 🎮 Roblox Just Had The Worst Day In Its History

• 🍎 Apple Crashes More Than 7%

• 🤯 Trump Is Sending Signals For $100,000/Month?

Friday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

☕️ A Tense Weekend & A Loaded Week

Grab your coffee, because a lot happened while you were off, and this week is packed.

The Iran War Heated Back Up: After a short pause, the fighting picked up again over the weekend. The US was reportedly planning new strikes on Iran, though they could still be called off. Iran fired back with threats. A tanker was hit near the Strait of Hormuz, and Kuwait shot down drones over its airspace.

Here's why you care: the Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of the world's oil. Every time it flares up, oil gets more expensive. Higher oil means higher inflation, and that keeps the Fed leaning toward raising rates instead of cutting them. Watch oil first thing Monday.

Where Markets Stand: Big Tech mostly delivered. Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple all posted record numbers, though Apple's stock still fell on a weak forecast. The Fed held rates steady, but three officials wanted a hike. And the whole market still leans on a few AI names, the same risk that just swung Korea's market 30% in one week.

The Big One: SpaceX Earnings: SpaceX ($SPCX) closed Friday at $108.37, a record low, down about 50% from its June peak. On Tuesday after the close, it reports earnings for the first time ever as a public company. Until now the stock has run on hype but Tuesday we get real numbers. Then on August 6, a batch of new shares unlocks and can be sold. This is the week SpaceX could start recovering or fall hard below $100.

📅 The Rest Of The Week:

• Monday: Palantir reports, a big read on AI demand.

• Tuesday: SpaceX, AMD, McDonald's, and Caterpillar report. Job openings data drops.

• Friday: The July jobs report, the week's biggest number. Last month came in weak at just 57,000 jobs, so this one matters for the Fed.

The Munch Take: This week, two forces we've watched all summer crash into each other. The Iran war drives oil and inflation from the outside. Earnings and the jobs report test whether this AI-powered market is real on the inside. SpaceX sums it up perfectly: a great company whose stock got cut in half, about to meet its own numbers. The lesson all month has been simple. Price and reality run on different clocks, and this week a few of them finally line up. Don't chase the SpaceX pop or drop before the unlock clears. Watch oil Monday, watch jobs Friday, and let the week come to you.

❗️ The Most Important Number In Finance Just Hit A 19-Year High

While everyone was focused on the Fed meeting and tech earnings last week, the single most important number in all of finance quietly climbed to a level it hasn't seen since before the 2008 crash. It's the one number that touches almost everything you own, and it's flashing red.

The US 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.27%, its highest since June 2007. The 10-year, the one that actually matters for your daily life, sits at 4.66%. Let's break down why this is a genuinely big deal, in plain English.

What a bond yield even is. When the US government needs money, it borrows by selling bonds. The "yield" is the interest rate it has to pay to get people to lend. When that rate rises, it means lenders are demanding more to hand over their cash. And here's the key part: almost every other interest rate in the country is built on top of this one.

Why you should care. That 10-year yield is the foundation for your mortgage, your car loan, and your credit card rate. Proof it's already biting: the average 30-year mortgage just climbed to 6.66%, a one-year high and its fourth straight weekly increase. This is exactly why the housing market we keep writing about is frozen. Cheaper mortgages aren't coming, they're getting more expensive.

Why it's happening now. Three forces are pushing yields up at once:

• 🔥 Sticky inflation: Stuck near 3.5%, well above the Fed's 2% target, partly thanks to oil prices from the Iran war.

• 🏦 A hawkish Fed: The Fed held rates last week, but three officials broke ranks wanting to hike, and Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed "will not hesitate to act." Rate cuts are off the table.

• 💸 A mountain of debt: The government now owes more than the entire economy produces, so lenders demand more to keep funding it.

• Special Report: You're Being LIED To About The Iran War (from Banyan Hill)

Why it matters for stocks too. When you can earn nearly 5% just holding safe government bonds, riskier stocks have to work harder to justify their prices. Higher yields are a quiet form of gravity pulling on every stock in your portfolio, especially the expensive tech names that have carried the market all year.

The Munch Take: Let me tell you what nobody on financial television will say plainly. This one number is the whole game, and everything else is a sideshow. The yen, the frozen housing market, the shaky tech stocks, none of it is the real story. The real story is that the price of money is going up, and a government sitting on $31 trillion in debt is paying more to borrow than at any time since before the last crisis. Washington spent decades borrowing like the bill would never come due, and the bond market is the one force that can't be spun, bullied, or voted out of office. Right now it's demanding to get paid, and that's what a 5.27% yield means: the lenders are done pretending the debt is free. I'm not telling you to panic, panic is for people who didn't see it coming. I'm telling you to understand it, because "higher for longer" stopped being a slogan and became the price tag on your mortgage, your business, and the country's ability to fund itself. My wife asked why I was reading about bonds on a Sunday night instead of relaxing. I told her this boring number decides more about our future than any stock I'll ever pick. She said that's either very wise or very sad, and when it comes to this much debt, it's both.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

🎮 Roblox Just Had The Worst Day In Its History

Roblox ($RBLX) cratered 28.8% on Friday, the single worst day the stock has ever had. It fell from around $48 to $35 in hours. Less than a year ago, in October 2025, this was one of the hottest stocks on the market. Here's what went wrong.

First, what even is Roblox? People call it "a kids game," but that undersells it. It's not one game, it's a platform where users, many of them young, build and play millions of games made by other users. Think of it as a YouTube for video games, where Roblox takes a cut every time someone spends real money on its in-game currency, Robux. At its peak it had 123 million people logging in daily.

Now, what happened. The core number Wall Street watches is "bookings," basically how much money users spend. Last year bookings grew a blistering 55% to 70%. This past quarter, that growth collapsed to just 8%. Even worse, the company told investors it expects bookings to actually shrink next quarter, then pulled its full-year forecast entirely. When a company says "we can't even predict our own year," investors sprint for the exits.

Here's the damage in plain numbers:

• 📉 Bookings growth: Cratered from 55%+ last year to just 8% this quarter.

• 🔮 Next quarter: Guided to fall 14% to 18%, an outright decline.

• 🚫 Full-year outlook: Withdrawn completely. Management admitted it can't predict its own results.

• 👀 Still healthy: Daily users actually grew 10% to 123 million, and free cash flow rose 66%.

• Free Report: Elon Musk’s Insane Projection: 7,692,207% (from Brownstone Research)

Why the growth stalled. Two self-inflicted reasons. Roblox rolled out mandatory age verification to make the platform safer for kids, and that slowed new sign-ups. It also changed the algorithm that decides which games get shown, prioritizing long-term health over squeezing quick money out of players. Management insists both moves make Roblox better for the long haul. The market heard "we're choosing to make less money right now" and sold.

The Munch Take: Roblox is doing something genuinely responsible, protecting kids and building for the long term, and getting punished for it in real time. That's the market in a nutshell: it rewards next quarter, not next decade. The real question isn't whether the safety changes are good, they clearly are. It's whether a platform built on kids spending money can keep growing once you make it harder for kids to spend money. Nobody knows that yet, including management, which is exactly why they refused to guess. Hats off to the long-term mindset, but we’re not touching this one.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

📦 $AMZN Amazon ripped 15.32% after a blowout quarter where its cloud business reaccelerated. Investors have spent all week rewarding the AI spenders as long as the growth shows up, and Amazon delivered exactly that.

🧬 $REPL Replimune more than doubled, up 107.02%, after an FDA advisory panel backed its experimental skin cancer treatment.

🥪 $JMIK Jersey Mike's bounced 7.24%, clawing back some ground after its rough post-IPO selloff. The sandwich chain is finding out that going public and staying loved are two very different sports.

🍎 $AAPL Apple dropped 7.35%. The quarter itself beat expectations, but weak guidance tied to supply constraints spooked everyone. When the most valuable company on Earth says it can't make enough product, the market doesn't hear "high demand," it hears "problem."

👽 $RDDT Reddit cratered 20.98% despite strong earnings. The fear isn't today's numbers, it's tomorrow's traffic, as investors worry AI chatbots and Google's AI Overviews could siphon away the visitors Reddit depends on.

💉 $NVO Novo Nordisk slid 8.74% after a late-stage trial of its experimental heart drug failed to hit its main goal. In pharma, one failed trial can erase billions before lunch.

🪙 $COIN Coinbase tumbled 10.59% after posting a wider loss than Wall Street expected. With crypto prices in a funk this year, the exchange that lives off trading activity is feeling the quiet.

🤑 Free Report from Weiss Ratings: The "Safe" Stock That Could Destroy You

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Monday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. ⏰ Trump’s New Dollar (via Porter & Co)

2. 🤯 Trump is sending signals for $100,000/month?

3. 🇺🇲 The national debt just exceeded $40 trillion.

4. 🥇 Is it time to buy gold? This hasn’t happened since 2022.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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