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📉 The Speech That Could Move Everything

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2:59 PM Friday. Make this trade.

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You're going to be SHOCKED.

☕️ GM Munchers! It's Friday and I'm back from the cottage, where I successfully relaxed for almost four full minutes before checking the market.

On today’s menu:

  • 📉 The Speech That Could Move Everything

  • ⛳ Callaway's Stock Is Playing Way Better Than Its Ad Team

  • 🐻 Build-A-Bear Got Mauled

  • 🚀 Trump Just Endorsed Micron

  • 🤑 Buy These Stocks Before August 31st

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500

7,730

+0.72%

Nasdaq

26,541

+1.57%

Dow Jones

53,569

+0.20%

Bitcoin

~$80,000

+1.23%

BREAKING NEWS

📅 Warsh Takes The Podium: The Speech That Could Move Everything

It's Friday, so let's get you ready for the single biggest event of the week. At 10:00 a.m. ET this morning, Kevin Warsh gives his first-ever keynote as Fed Chair at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming. This is his debut on the most-watched stage in all of finance, and traders will parse every single word for clues about what the Fed will do next.

Here's why the stakes are so high. Warsh is walking into a genuinely ugly setup. Inflation is stuck in the mid-3s, nearly double the Fed's 2% target, while the job market is actually cracking, with the economy shedding jobs last month. The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007 last week before the Treasury stepped in to calm things down. Warsh has to thread all of that in about 20 minutes, and the September 16 rate decision is only weeks away.

  • 🎯 Watch for surprise, not consensus. About 69% of fund managers expect a neutral, boring speech. That means any real lean, hawkish or dovish, could move stocks 2% to 3% fast.

  • 🏦 September is the real prize. Markets are pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance of a rate cut. Warsh's tone today is the tiebreaker for what actually happens in three weeks.

  • 💵 Track yields, gold, and the dollar. The 2-year Treasury yield, the dollar index, and gold typically move hard in the two hours after he speaks. Those are your real-time read on how the market heard him.

The Munch Take: A brand new Fed chair's first big speech is always a wildcard, and this one lands with inflation hot, jobs weak, and the market sitting at record highs. That combination is exactly the kind of setup where a single sentence can send everything flying. Don't ruin your weekend by doing anything foolish. This is a day to sit, watch and think. Not to hit the panic button. Keeping an eye on prediction markets and their September Fed meeting predictions will be the easiest way to monitor what’s going on. Or just wait for us to update you on Monday.

His Father Got Parkinson's. He Built Robots Instead.

Clint Brauer grew up on his family's Kansas farm. His dad sprayed the same chemicals every American farmer sprays. Years later: Parkinson's. Clint walked away from a tech career to build a different way. Today his company, Greenfield Robotics, runs a patented fleet of autonomous bots that slice weeds with centimeter precision, day or night, herbicide-free. 

Greenfield is now opening shares to everyday investors under Reg A+. Reserve during Test the Waters and you lock in a 5% bonus that can grow to 20% the week the round goes live. The US has 250 million acres at stake.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

Callaway's Stock Is Playing Way Better Than Its Ad Team

$CALY Callaway has slipped about 3.5% this week after one of the weirdest ad ideas in recent golf memory. The company teamed up with golf content brand Good Good to promote a new co-branded Quantum driver, and the video showed a male golfer shoving a female golfer to the ground when she reached for his club. The internet did what the internet does. Both companies pulled the ad within hours and issued apologies, and Callaway's CEO admitted the company had actually approved the thing.

Here's the funny part. The stock is still up sharply this year, cruising along on real business strength while its marketing department set itself on fire. Callaway's core golf equipment sales grew 4.5% last quarter, with revenue from that segment hitting $430 million and margins widening. In other words, the stock has been a far better driver than anything Good Good filmed.

  • The core business is healthy: Golf equipment sales grew 4.5% last quarter, the actual engine behind this year's run.

  • 📉 The ad damage looks minor: The stock only dipped about 2%, and trading volume stayed light, a sign investors saw noise, not a real problem.

  • 🏌️ Watch the November read: Callaway's next earnings report and its PGA Tour partnership are where any real fallout would actually show up.

The Munch Take: We think this one is totally overblown. Could the ad have been better? Obviously, it was a genuinely terrible concept and everyone involved has already admitted as much. But the woke mob is coming for the whole company over a bad 20-second video that got yanked almost immediately, and the underlying business has not changed one bit. A light 2% dip on light volume tells you Wall Street agrees this is reputational noise, not a real dent. Either way, full disclosure, I'm a TaylorMade and Titleist guy, so none of this was ever going to change my bag.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

💰️ Special Alert: Major Buy Alert Issued for August 31st (Via TradeSmith)

$CELH Celsius dropped 6.36% after Deutsche Bank downgraded it, pointing to deeper "fundamental challenges" for the energy drink maker. Who knew being in one of the most competitive industries in the world would create “challenges.”

🧸 $BBW Is nothing sacred anymore? Build-A-Bear got mauled for 27.26% after cutting its growth forecast sharply and showing its chief growth officer the door on the same day. Hard to keep the "growth" title when the growth just went missing.

🔌 $BBY Best Buy fell 4.44% even after beating estimates and lifting its outlook, because investors zeroed in on thin profit margins once tariff refunds were stripped out. A beat means little when the underlying margins look shaky. The stock is still up 20% YTD.

🛍️ $BURL Burlington Stores slid 7.64% after quarterly sales came up short and its next-quarter guidance landed below what Wall Street wanted. Discount shoppers showing up is great, but not if the register totals still miss.

🌳 $DLTR Even Dollar Tree’s stock is getting discounted. It fell 3.99% despite beating on earnings, as a soft third-quarter outlook and squeezed margins overshadowed the good number. Investors clearly cared more about what's coming than what just happened.

💵 $DG Dollar General rose 2.55% after topping estimates and raising its full-year earnings outlook. In a rough day for discount retail, it was the one name that actually gave investors something to smile about.

BIG NEWS

🚀 Trump Just Endorsed Micron

A shoutout from my third-grade teacher had me walking on air for days. Yesterday Micron got the presidential version and the stock shrugged like a teenager being complimented in front of their friends.

Trump praised the memory-chip maker's plan to invest $10 billion over the next decade in new U.S. research labs, calling it "one of the hottest companies in the world" and crediting his own policies for the wave of investment. That $10 billion sits on top of a previously announced $250 billion U.S. commitment through 2035. Funny enough, the stock actually closed slightly lower on the day, shrugging off the praise entirely.

The bigger picture is genuinely wild. Micron has been on an absolute tear, riding the AI memory boom as demand for its high-bandwidth memory chips, the specialized parts that feed Nvidia's AI hardware, keeps outrunning supply. Analysts expect that memory shortage to last until at least 2028, which is exactly the kind of pricing power that turns a cyclical chip company into a market darling.

  • 🔥 The run has been enormous. Micron has climbed sharply this year and more than tripled over the past 12 months on AI memory demand.

  • 📉 It's off its highs. The stock has pulled back from its all-time high, which is the setup that has some bargain hunters interested.

  • ⚠️ The bar is now sky-high. Trading near record levels leaves little room for error, and any earnings miss could trigger a fast drop.

The Munch Take: A pullback from all-time highs on a company with real, sold-out demand is exactly the kind of setup we pay attention to, and Micron fits our whole "sell the shovels" AI thesis perfectly. That said, two honest caveats. We couldn't confirm whether Trump personally holds Micron in his latest filings, so take the endorsement at face value and nothing more. And a stock up this much has already priced in a lot of good news, so this is a name we'd want on a real dip, not at the top of a 12-month moonshot.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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