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š The Trade War Is Back

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āļø GM Munchers! My wife said she wants āmore stabilityā in our life⦠so I showed her my USD/CHF chart. She didnāt laugh. I did. Quietly. In the basement.
On todayās menu:
š Market Mayhem: Tariffs, Rice, and Gold
š¢ Meet the Trader Who Lost $28M in 24 Hours
š Nvidiaās $256 Billion Move
ā Is This Prop Firm Banning Traders?
𤯠This Stock Market Chart Is Crazy
Fridayās numbers:
S&P 500 | 5,802 | -0.67% |
Nasdaq | 18,737 | -1.00% |
Dow Jones | 41,603 | -0.61% |
Bitcoin | $109,301 | +0.26% |
BREAKING NEWS
š The Trade War Is (Kinda) Back

Last Friday, Trump did what Trump doesālit the market on fire. He announced:
50% tariffs on EU goods (starting June 1)
25% tariffs on Apple
BREAKING: President Trump says a 50% tariff on the European Union will begin June 1st.
The trade war is back.
ā The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)
11:46 AM ⢠May 23, 2025
That erased $1.5 trillion of market cap in 5 days. And then?
Surprise twist: On Sunday, he hit CTRL+Z and pushed the EU tariffs back to July 9. Monday, he followed up with a tweet saying countries āall over the worldā are begging to make trade deals with the U.S.
TRUMP: "Countries from all over the world want to make trade deals with us."
ā The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)
11:51 AM ⢠May 26, 2025
Translation: Markets are whipsawing on tweets again. Welcome back to 2019.
š§µ Plain-English Play:
Apple could stay shaky until July 9.
Risk-off flows (gold, bonds) may hold firm as traders brace for the next tariff twist.
If Trump backpedals again, expect EUR and equity relief rallies.

š Japan Enters Stagflation (With a Side of Rice)
Prices in Japan are soaring:
The cost of rice jumped +98.4% year-over-year in April, posting the biggest monthly jump since 1971.
This is an acceleration from the +92.1% surge recorded in March.
Energy prices rose +9.3% after the March phaseout of Japanese government subsidies
ā The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)
4:18 PM ⢠May 25, 2025
Japan just posted:
+98.4% YoY surge in rice prices (biggest since 1971)
+3.5% CPI (5th straight month above 3%)
-0.7% GDP shrinkage in Q1
Translation: Inflationās spiking. Growth is falling. The yenās stuck in a game of monetary limbo.
š§µ Plain-English Play:
If BoJ hikes rates to fight inflation, JPY could strengthen⦠but at the cost of more pain for stocks.
If they donāt, yen may weaken, adding fuel to import-driven inflation.
At the end of the day? You canāt effectively trade the JPY without keeping a close eye on whatās coming out of Japan.

š„ Gold Closes at Record High
JUST IN šØ: Gold scores highest weekly close in history š
ā Barchart (@Barchart)
11:39 PM ⢠May 23, 2025
Gold just logged its highest weekly close ever at $3,342/oz.
Why?
Trade war = uncertainty
Japan = inflation
The U.S. bond market = anxiety attack
Investors are racing out of fiat and into hard assets. Even my wifeās Costco gold jewelry purchases are suddenly looking like alpha.
š§µ Plain-English Play:
More risk-off headlines = higher gold
USD strength may slow gold momentum short-term, but long-term sentiment is shining bright
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2:45 PM ⢠May 26, 2025
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MARKET OVERVIEW
šæ Tasty Movers & Shakers
$VLVOF ( ā² 0.84% ) Volvoās trimming 3,000 jobs to cut costs. Translation: margin preservation mode is officially in drive.
$CAC40 ( 0.0% ) French stocks bounced after Trump hit snooze on those EU tariffs. Germanyās $DAX ( ā² 0.16% ) followed suit. Risk-onāuntil July 9, at least.
$NVDA ( ā² 3.25% ) Earnings drop after Wednesdayās close. Options are pricing in a ±8% moveāthatās a casual $256B swing, give or take the GDP of Portugal.
$DJT ( ā¼ 3.07% ) Trumpās media SPAC is reportedly planning to raise $3 billion to bet big on cryptoāBitcoin included. Because nothing says campaign trail like a multi-billion dollar long.
$L.TSX ( ā¼ 0.54% ) A Canadian judge just approved a $500M settlement against Loblaws for fixing bread prices. Turns out the ā2 for $5ā deal came with some legal carbs.
CRYPTO
š¢ Meet the Trader Who Lost $28M in 24 Hours
THE 40X #BITCOIN WHALE JAMES WYNN JUST INCREASED HIS SHORT POSITION TO $1 BILLION š
ā Vivekā”ļø (@Vivek4real_)
4:37 PM ⢠May 25, 2025
James Wynnāaka āmoonpigā on Hyperliquidājust pulled off one of the most aggressive trades in on-chain Bitcoin history. And it didnāt end well.
Hereās the rundown:
After closing a $1.2B long with a major loss, Wynn flipped bearish and opened a $111.8M short using 40x leverage.
He scaled the short to $1 billion, effectively betting his entire $50M wallet on a BTC pullback.
His average entry was around $107,077, just as Bitcoin touched new all-time highs.
His reasoning?
Weak volume. An overextended 4-hour chart. A soft 50-day moving average. And, of course, macroāTrumpās new 50% tariff threat on the EU didnāt exactly scream ārisk-on.ā

The problem? Bitcoin didnāt care.
Despite briefly being up ~$3M, Wynnās position reversed hard. Within a day, he closed all shorts at a $15ā17M loss. Combined with his earlier long wipeout, that brings his 24-hour hit to nearly $28M.
Wynnās trades were large enough to shake market sentiment, with many tracking his liquidation range between $110K and $149K. When those levels held, sentiment shiftedāand Bitcoin rallied.
Heās since said heās stepping away from trading (for now), still claiming $25M in cumulative profits.
Key takeaway:
Size doesnāt make you right. Sentiment, liquidity, and timing do. And if youāre using 40x leverage at a local top, youāre not trading the marketāyouāre gambling against gravity.
PROP FIRMS
ā Is This Prop Firm Banning Traders?
Check out the comments to this post and decide for yourself.
Looks like Apex sent out lots of love letters yesterday and last night. š
ā Jmu (@jmutrades)
11:31 AM ⢠May 26, 2025
š Pre-Market Fuel
šŖ Munchy Memes
Me: SPYās gonna fall off the cliff soon
SPY:
ā steve2baconš„ (@steve2bacon)
5:33 PM ⢠May 23, 2025
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