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Land, fly, or die,

Tim Plaehn

☕️ GM Munchers! It's the last trading day before the Fourth of July weekend. Markets close early, the hot dogs are ready, and I've just been informed we're spending the holiday at my in-laws. Pray for me.

On today’s menu:

• 🥇 Inflation Eases & Gold Rips

• 📉 The Trump Pump Broke

• 🛴 Robinhood, Caterpillar & Lime

• ☁️ Meta Just Turned Its Biggest Problem Into A Business Plan

• 🇺🇲 Politicians Are Buying This Stock

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

🥇 Warsh Said Inflation Is Easing. Gold Added $1.25 Trillion In Six Hours.

Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, was speaking at the European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal yesterday. He said that while prices are still too high, he and fellow central bankers have become increasingly open-minded about AI acting as a deflationary force, meaning AI could actually help bring prices down over time. That was enough for the market to dial back its rate hike fears slightly.

The Polymarket odds of a rate hike in 2026 still sit at 54%, down from over 60% at the peak. That's not a dramatic shift. But in financial markets, even small shifts in expectations move billions of dollars. And yesterday, those dollars went straight into precious metals.

Here's what happened and why it matters:

• 🥇 Gold ripped 3.7%, adding $1.05 trillion in market value in six hours. When rate hike fears ease, gold benefits immediately. Higher rates make gold less attractive because bonds start paying better returns. So any signal that hikes might not happen sends money flooding back into gold.

• 🥈 Silver surged 6%, adding $200 billion in market value. Silver moves faster and harder than gold in both directions. When gold runs, silver sprints. Yesterday was a sprint.

• 🏦 The rate hike probability matters more than people think. Warsh declined to hint at a July rate decision but signaled that AI-driven productivity gains could bring inflation down without the Fed needing to act aggressively. Markets heard that as a reason to breathe slightly easier.

The Munch Take: We've spent a lot of time this week talking about gold and Bitcoin and why buying at these levels didn't seem like a bad long-term decision. Gold is now up 3.7% in a single session. We'll absolutely take the credit for that one. If it drops back down next week, that was obviously a completely different situation that had nothing to do with anything we said. We maintain full credit for the wins and zero responsibility for any temporary dips. This is the market. My wife asked if we were up on our gold position. I said yes. She asked if we were smart or lucky. I said both. She said that's what people say when they're lucky.

📉 The Trump Pump Broke

Yesterday President Trump posted on Truth Social calling $MU Micron Technology one of the "HOTTEST" companies anywhere in the world and announcing a $250 million investment from Micron's CEO into Trump Accounts. The stock dropped 9% on the day. The Trump Pump, it seems, is not working like it used to.

This story connects to something much bigger that's been brewing since Trump's latest financial disclosures dropped this week. His Q1 2026 filing revealed 3,642 securities transactions between January and March, a pace of roughly 63 trades every single trading day. It is the most active presidential trading portfolio in modern American history by an enormous margin. And now people want in.

Here's what's actually happening:

• 🤖 People are now copy trading the President. A new account called Donald Trump Portfolio Tracker launched this week promising to mirror every disclosed trade Trump makes in real time. This isn't completely new territory. Millions of people have been tracking Nancy Pelosi's trades for years. But no sitting president in history has ever maintained an active personal stock portfolio at this scale. This is genuinely uncharted ground.

• ⚠️ The conflict of interest questions are real. Some of Trump's trades preceded major policy announcements by days. His accounts bought Nvidia stock the week before his administration relaxed export controls on Nvidia chips to China. The Trump Organization says independent managers make all the decisions and Trump has no input. Ethics experts are not convinced.

• 📉 The Micron pump didn't work. Trump called it one of the hottest companies anywhere and announced a major investment into his own platform from its CEO. The stock fell 9%. Sometimes even a presidential endorsement can't fight a market that has already made up its mind.

The Munch Take: The sitting President of the United States is executing 63 stock trades per day, announced a $250 million investment into his own platform from Micron's CEO, and the stock still dropped 9%. People are now building tools to copy trade him in real time which is either the most sophisticated or most chaotic investing environment in presidential history, depending on how you look at it. My only question is logistical. I get tired after reading two earnings reports. This man is managing a war, running the country, and still averaging more trades before noon than most retail investors make in a month. Respect, honestly

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

🛴 $LIME Lime, the Uber-backed e-bike and scooter company, jumped 4% after raising $167 million in its IPO. Not bad for a company whose entire business model depends on people not wanting to walk.

🖥️ $BSPO Bending Spoons, the new owner of AOL, yes that AOL, surged 39.66% on its first day of trading. Someone bought AOL, put it in an Italian software company, and it ripped 40% on debut. We live in a simulation.

👟 $NKE Nike ended up 4.9% despite reporting that sales in China dropped 12% last quarter. The market apparently decided the bad news was already priced in. China is still a problem. The stock went up anyway. Markets are weird.

🐦 $HOOD Robinhood rallied 8.35% after launching tokenized stocks, letting users trade real equities on the blockchain. Warren Buffett is somewhere shaking his head. The stock is ripping regardless though.

🍺 $STZ Constellation Brands slipped 1.59% even after beating Q4 revenue expectations. Beat the number. Still went down. The market wanted more and didn't get it.

🚜 $CAT Caterpillar dropped 6.87% after Michael Burry announced he's shorting the construction equipment giant. Burry just closed a winning Palantir short and immediately opened a new one. The man does not rest.

STOCK OF THE DAY

☁️ Meta Just Turned Its Biggest Problem Into A Business Plan.

For the past year, Wall Street has had one major complaint about $META. Mark Zuckerberg keeps spending money on AI like someone who just discovered a credit card with no limit. The company raised its 2026 spending plan to between $125 billion and $145 billion on AI infrastructure. Investors hated it and the stock is still down 5% year to date because of it.

Then yesterday happened. Bloomberg reported that Meta is building a cloud business called Meta Compute, which will sell its excess AI computing power directly to outside customers. The stock jumped 10% in a single session, its biggest intraday gain since April.

Here's why this changes everything:

• 💡 The spending suddenly makes sense. Meta built so much AI infrastructure that it has more than it needs. Selling the leftovers turns a cost center into a revenue line. Think of it like building a massive kitchen and then opening a restaurant with the extra space.

• ⚔️ It puts Meta in direct competition with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. Those three companies have made cloud computing one of the most profitable businesses on earth. Meta is now walking into that fight with arguably the largest AI infrastructure on the planet.

• 📉 The neocloud companies got crushed immediately. CoreWeave dropped 14% and Nebius fell 17% on the news. When one of their biggest customers becomes a competitor, the market doesn't wait around to ask questions.

📈 The Bull Case:

• This reframes $145 billion in capex from reckless spending to a long term infrastructure bet that now has a clear path to generating revenue.

• AI compute demand is still far outstripping supply globally. Meta has a ready customer base and the infrastructure to serve it immediately.

• Following the Amazon playbook, which built AWS from internal infrastructure, is not a bad template to copy.

📉 The Bear Case:

• This is not confirmed yet. No official announcement from Meta. The plan is still being debated internally.

• Some analysts say this is a tacit admission that Meta overbuilt and its own AI projects aren't consuming the capacity it expected.

• Building a cloud business requires enterprise sales teams, customer support, and software platforms that Meta has never had to build before.

The Munch Take: Meta spent a year being punished by the market for building too much AI infrastructure. Today it announced plans to sell that infrastructure to other companies and jumped 10% in a single day. The spending didn't change. The story around it did. Whether that's a genuine business pivot or a very expensive way to spin a problem is something we'll know in about two years.

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TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Thursday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 🇺🇲 Politicians are buying this stock.

2. 🤖 This company is starting to sell home robots.

3. 😬 The CEO of Palantir got mad on CNBC.

4. ✅ Here is Trump’s updated portfolio.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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