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CHART OF THE DAY

🏥 $UNH Just Fell Below Buffett's Buy Price. Here's Why That Matters.

The largest health insurer in America is having an identity crisis. $UNH has dropped more than 20% since January and is down 50% over the last year. It has now sliced clean through the price Berkshire paid for its 5 million share position last year.

Berkshire acquired those shares for an estimated $2.1 billion in Q2 2025. Do the math. That position is now sitting in the red.

Why It's Bleeding: Three things hit at once.

1. UnitedHealth guided 2026 revenue at $439 billion. That's a 2% drop from 2025. It’s the first annual revenue decline in more than three decades.

2. Then Washington piled on. CMS proposed a meager 0.09% Medicare Advantage rate increase for 2026, which doesn't come close to covering the surge in medical costs.

3. Add a DOJ antitrust investigation into Optum, and you've got a full-contact nightmare.

📈 The Bull Case:

• $16.1 billion in free cash flow in 2025. The underlying business still prints money.

• Forward earnings multiple below 16x. That's deep discount territory versus the five-year average.

• Analyst consensus sits at Moderate Buy, with a mean price target around $359. That's 38% upside from here.

📉 The Bear Case:

• Medical care ratio jumped to 88.9% from 85.5% which means margins are getting crushed.

• Medicare reimbursement rates aren't keeping up with what it actually costs to insure people.

• Legal and regulatory headline risk isn't going away before April 21 earnings.

What Buffett Would Say: Berkshire didn't buy $UNH because it was popular. It bought because it was the largest insurer in the world, trading at a discount during peak chaos. Damaged reputation, suspended guidance, a murdered executive. That's exactly when Berkshire moves. The thesis hasn't changed. The price just got cheaper.

The Munch Take: The market is punishing $UNH like it's going out of business. It isn't. It insures one in seven Americans. The Medicare rate squeeze is real, the legal risk is real, and April 21 earnings could be ugly. But Berkshire is sitting on 5 million shares at a higher price than you can buy them right now. My wife asked me last week why I don't just copy what Buffett does. I told her it's more complicated than that. She bought $UNH anyway. She's up on me.

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BIG PICTURE

🚨 The Bond Market Is Calling Everyone's Bluff

Here's the thing about Treasury yields. Most people ignore them. That's a mistake.

What They Actually Are: When you lend money to the U.S. government, they pay you interest. That interest rate is the yield. The 10-Year and 30-Year Treasuries are the most important ones. They set the baseline for every other interest rate in the economy. Mortgages. Car loans. Corporate debt. All of it.

Why Right Now Is Scary: The 30-Year yield closed Friday at 4.98%. The 10-Year hit 4.44%, its highest level since July 2025. The 30-Year is now knocking on the door of levels last seen during the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis. Mortgage rates are already sitting at 6.5%.

Why They're Rising: Fear is growing that Fed rate cuts are off the table. Inflation is sticky. The U.S. deficit keeps climbing. And bond investors are demanding more compensation to hold long-term government debt. When they sell bonds, yields go up. Simple as that.

What It Means For Markets: Higher yields make bonds attractive. That pulls money out of stocks. It crushes growth companies. It makes corporate borrowing more expensive. The whole machine slows down.

The Munch Take: 5% on the 30-Year isn't just a number. It's a psychological line in the sand. Cross it and my wife will start asking why our mortgage payment went up. I'll try to explain the bond market. She'll tell me we should have bought a smaller house. She'll be right.

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