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EVP, Zacks.com

☕️ GM Munchers! The market was down so bad yesterday that my wife made cookies to cheer me up. I didn’t tell her things mostly recovered by the end of the day, though. We want to keep the cookies flowing.

On today’s menu:

• 🔥 Inflation Just Hit a Three-Year High

• 📊 The Stock Market Has Never Been More Expensive. Ever.

• 🎽 Under Armour Crashes 17%

• 🚕 Waymo's Robotaxi Just Went Swimming

• 😏 This Stock Has a 93% History of Soaring Every Spring

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

🔥 Inflation Just Hit a Three-Year High. The Market Finally Noticed.

Gas is $4.54 a gallon. Airfare is up 21%. Groceries cost more every single week. And somehow, the market is only now acting surprised about inflation. Better late than never, I suppose.

April CPI came in at 3.8% year over year, the highest reading since May 2023 and above the 3.7% Wall Street expected. The market sold off hard and broadly. Tech got hit. Chips got hit. Everything got hit.

Here is what the numbers actually look like for real people:

• ⛽️ Gasoline is up 28.4% year over year and energy prices accounted for over 40% of the entire CPI increase. The Iran war is not an abstract macro event anymore. It’s showing up at every gas station in America, every single day.

• ✈️ Airfare inflation hit 20.7% annually, and food at home prices posted their biggest monthly jump since August 2022. The cost of living is genuinely uncomfortable right now for most Americans.

• 📉 Wages fell 0.5% for the month and are down 0.3% annually in real terms. Real terms means after inflation is factored in. Your paycheck went up but prices went up faster. You are losing ground without realizing it.

What does this mean for the Fed? Everything. Traders are no longer pricing in any rate cuts at all in 2026. Just months ago, the market was expecting three cuts this year. Now, prediction markets put the odds of an actual rate hike at 31%. A rate hike. Not a cut. A hike. Let that sink in.

The Munch Take: The market spent six weeks ripping to all-time highs while gas prices were at $4.54, groceries were climbing every week, and airfare was up 21%. Yesterday it finally read the receipt. The rally was real, and earnings supported it. But inflation this sticky with an Iran war still unresolved means the Fed is completely boxed in. No cuts. Possibly hikes. That changes the math on expensive tech stocks fast. Yesterday was a warning shot. Whether the market listens is another question entirely.

📊 The Stock Market Has Never Been More Expensive. Ever.

The Warren Buffett Indicator just crossed 230% for the first time in history. To put that in plain English, the total value of every publicly traded stock in America is now 2.3 times the entire US economy. Buffett himself once said anything above 200% was playing with fire. We are now 30 points past that threshold with no signs of slowing down.

Yesterday felt ugly for a few hours. The inflation print came in hot, tech sold off, and for a moment, it looked like the rally was finally cracking. Then the market recovered by the close, and everyone went back to feeling fine. That one-day wobble is a good reminder of where we actually are.

Two months ago, people were genuinely terrified of a crash. The S&P was down hard, sentiment was awful, and every financial headline was doom. The people who deployed cash into that dip are sitting on 16% gains right now. The people who waited for more pain missed the entire recovery.

Here is the honest truth about where we go from here:

• 📈 We are invested. When the market is at all-time highs you need exposure or you lose. The rally has been real and earnings have supported it. Sitting entirely in cash right now is painful.

• 💵 We are also holding cash. Not because we think a crash is coming tomorrow. Because when it does come, and it always does, we want dry powder ready to deploy. That gap between all-time highs and fair value is eventually going to close.

• ⏳ The waiting game is real. Could the market stay this expensive for another 12 months? Absolutely. Could it stay frothy for two years? History says yes. Timing a correction at 230% on the Buffett Indicator is a fool's errand. Being ready for one is not.

The Munch Take: The most expensive market in history does not mean a crash is coming tomorrow. It means the margin for error is thinner than it has ever been. We play this by staying invested enough to win if the rally continues and keeping enough cash to take advantage when it does not. That line is different for everyone. But the worst move right now is sitting in 100% cash waiting for a drop that may not come for a year or more. The second worst move is being 100% invested with nothing left to deploy when it finally does. Find your line and hold it.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

💻️ $NVDA Well Fargo raised their Nvidia price target to $315. Considering the stock is at $220 right now, it’s safe to say they’re bullish.

✈️ $UAL United Airlines flight attendants ratified a new contract that will give them 31% raises this summer. I’m currently considering a career change. Considering the stock is already down 15% this year, I can’t imagine this is good news for their bottom line.

💻 $INTC dropped 6.82% giving back a chunk of last week's Apple deal gains. Hot inflation and rising rate hike odds hit the high-multiple chip names hardest today.

💊 $HIMS cratered roughly 14% after a mixed Q1 earnings report. Revenue of $608 million missed estimates, EPS missed badly, and while the company raised full-year revenue guidance, it cut its profit outlook. The transition from cheap compounded GLP-1 drugs to branded Ozempic and Wegovy is crushing margins. The business is growing. The profitability is not.

👕 $UAA Under Armour cratered 17% to close out the day as one of the biggest losers in the entire market. No specific catalyst beyond broad consumer sentiment weakness and a stock that was already fragile heading into a tough macro day. Sometimes bad days just find the weakest names.

CHART OF THE DAY

🚕 Waymo's Robotaxi Just Went Swimming

Waymo just recalled 3,800 robotaxis because the cars were driving into floods. Minor bug. Totally fine. Your driverless car just needs a small software update so it stops trying to swim.

On April 20, an unoccupied Waymo robotaxi in San Antonio drove into a flooded road and was swept into Salado Creek. The software flaw allowed vehicles to maintain speed when entering standing water rather than stopping. The fix is being pushed over the air like a phone update. No service center required. The less good news: this is now the fourth recall Waymo has issued in two years, following crashes with a towed vehicle, parking gates, telephone poles, and school buses.

$GOOGL barely reacted. That tells you everything. Waymo is valued at $126 billion, delivers 500,000 rides a week, and is targeting 1 million weekly rides by year end. One soggy robotaxi is not derailing that story.

$TSLA launched in Austin in June 2025 and has since expanded to Dallas and Houston, but its unsupervised fleet sits at just 25 verified vehicles across all three cities. Tesla is losing the battle today but the war is a different conversation. Waymo's robotaxi costs an estimated $100,000 to $200,000 per vehicle to build. Tesla's Cybercab is targeting under $30,000. At scale, that cost advantage is not just a detail. It is the entire business model. Tesla just needs to actually get there.

The Munch Take: Waymo driving into a creek is funny but the technology is serious stuff. The robotaxi market is real, the prize is enormous, and right now Waymo is lapping the field while Tesla has 25 cars across three cities. Neither story is particularly reassuring. Maybe avoid booking a Waymo during a Texas thunderstorm for now.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Wednesday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 😏 This stock has a 93% history of soaring every spring (via Tradesmith)

2. 🚀 Copper just hit the highest price in history.

3. 🍩 Dunkin’ Donuts is returning to Canada.

4. 🚗 30% of car buyers in 2026 are “underwater.”

🍪 Munchy Memes

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