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☕️ GM Munchers! The World Cup kicked off yesterday. The trophy is worth $713,000 and the winning country gets to hold it for four years before handing it back. My wife bought a vase last week for $40 and I’m not allowed to touch it. Sounds pretty similar.

On today’s menu:

• 📈 Bad News Is Good News

• 🚀 Today Is The Day. SpaceX Just Became A Public Company.

• 🍁 The Canadian Dollar Is Struggling

• 😬 Oracle Crashes 20% In 5 Days

• 🇺🇲 The U.S. Dollar Is At A Critical Point

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

📈 Bad News Is Good News. The Market Just Had Its Best Day In Weeks.

Yesterday was a strange one. The inflation numbers were bad. Like, real bad. And yet, the market went up anyway. Welcome to 2026.

The May Producer Price Index came in at 6.5% against an expectation of 6.4%. That is the highest reading since November 2022. Combined with this week's CPI hitting a three-year high, the message from the data is clear. Inflation is not going away. In fact, it’s coming back and hopes of a rate cut are completely gone. In fact, Polymarket now puts the odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 at 49%. Flip a coin. That is where we are with rate expectations right now.

And yet the Dow jumped 1,000 points. How?

Trump’s timing could not have been better as he announced that the Iran war is essentially settled, subject to finalization, and that he expects a formal signing within days. Oil prices dropped more than 4% immediately on the news. When oil falls, inflation fears ease. When inflation fears ease, the market breathes. That is the entire logic of yesterday's rally in one sentence.

Here is why this matters beyond just one good day:

• The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of the world's entire oil supply, has been effectively shut down since the war started. A peace deal reopens it and that means cheaper energy for everyone.

• Cheaper oil means lower transport costs, lower food costs, and lower electricity bills. Everything that has been going up because of the energy shock starts coming back down if this deal finally gets signed.

• Analysts estimate national gasoline prices could fall below $4 per gallon within one to two weeks if the strait fully reopens. That’s the kind of number that gets people excited about a summer road trip.

The catch is that this ceasefire has been fragile before. The deal has been on the verge of completion more times than I can count and has fallen apart each time. Right now, the market is betting that this one sticks. But it’s not the first time it’s made this bet before.

The Munch Take: Inflation hit its highest level in years yesterday and the stock market celebrated anyway because a peace deal looks close. That is bad news being treated as good news and good news being treated as great news all in the same session. The logic is not as crazy as it sounds. If oil comes down, inflation comes down with it and suddenly the Fed might not have to hike rates. The whole chain reaction runs through one narrow waterway in the Middle East. My wife asked me last night if the war being over meant our grocery bills would go down. I said it depends on whether the deal actually holds. She said "so we wait and see." I said yes. She said "same as always." Correct.

🚀 Today Is The Day. SpaceX Just Became A Public Company.

Months of waiting. Weeks of headlines. Years of speculation. It all comes to a head today in what will be one of the biggest days in stock market history.

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share, raising $75 billion at a valuation of $1.8 trillion. Trading begins today on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The previous record for the largest IPO ever was Saudi Aramco at $29 billion in 2019. SpaceX just shattered that record by raising more than double in a single offering. Nothing like this has ever happened before.

Here are the numbers that matter most:

• BlackRock placed an order for at least $5 billion worth of SpaceX shares, one of the single largest individual orders in IPO history. When the world's biggest money manager writes a check that size, everyone else in the room takes notice.

• Morningstar Research says SpaceX is worth a maximum of $63 per share. It is pricing at $135. That means according to one of the most respected research firms in the world, you are paying more than double what the stock is actually worth on day one. That is a 114% premium before a single share trades.

• The $75 billion SpaceX will raise today is so much money it could cover 8% of the gap between what America spends around the world and what it earns back. Think of it like a credit card bill. The US runs a tab with the rest of the world every year. One rocket company just paid off nearly a tenth of it in a single afternoon.

• Elon Musk's total net worth is now projected to hit $1.39 trillion this year, making him not just the richest person alive but the first human being in history to cross the $1 trillion mark in personal wealth.

But here is the bigger story beyond the numbers. Today is not just about SpaceX. It is about an entirely new sector of the stock market opening its doors for the first time. Space exploration, satellite networks, rocket manufacturing, and orbital infrastructure have never been accessible to everyday investors before. Starting today they are. Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, and a wave of other space companies are watching this IPO very closely. If SpaceX's debut goes well, it could trigger a flood of space companies going public and billions of dollars moving into a sector that barely existed on public markets just a few years ago.

The Munch Take: The largest IPO in history is a rocket company whose core business makes money but whose AI division is burning through billions, is run by the world's first trillionaire, and went public today at a valuation that one major research firm says is more than double what it is worth. And yet the demand has been overwhelming from day one. That tells you everything about where investor excitement is right now. We personally think $1.8 trillion on opening day is a lot to pay for a company still finding its footing financially. But we also thought the same thing about a lot of stocks that went on to prove everyone wrong. My wife asked me this morning if we were buying any SpaceX shares. I said we’re going to wait to see how things play out. She nodded and said she was sure it would be fine without us. Somehow that was both comforting and slightly insulting.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

☁️ $ORCL Oracle has had a brutal week. Down nearly 20% in five days after the market reacted poorly to increasing AI spending and a cloud revenue miss. Wall Street is fine with companies spending on AI. It is less fine when that spending does not show up in the numbers.

💾 $INTC Intel jumped over 9% after Bank of America gave the stock a double upgrade, pointing to growing demand for CPUs tied to the rise of AI agents. A double upgrade means the analyst went from bearish to bullish in one move. That is not a small change of heart. That is a full conversion.

🎨 $ADBE Adobe fell over 6% ahead of earnings as investors got nervous about AI competition eating into its creative software business. When the product you charge people for can now be partially replicated by a free AI tool, the market tends to ask uncomfortable questions before the earnings call.

🏠 $Z Zillow and $CSGP CoStar dropped 3.6% and 4.6% respectively after Google expanded its home listings program nationwide. Google entering your market is the corporate equivalent of a very large neighbor deciding to park in your driveway. There is not much you can do about it.

🐾 $CHWY Chewy slid 6% after cutting its full-year sales outlook despite a solid quarter. Strong results, weaker guidance, and the stock goes down. If my wife still read this newsletter, she’d say we need to get a dog to support the company. Thankfully she stopped a long time ago.

CHART OF THE DAY

🍁 The Canadian Dollar Just Hit Its Weakest Level Of The Year. Here’s What That Means For You.

The Canadian dollar is having a rough year and it just got rougher.

The loonie dropped to 71.67 US cents this week, its weakest level since December 2025. To put that in plain English: one Canadian dollar now buys you less than 72 American cents. A year ago it was buying closer to 75 cents. That gap matters more than it sounds

So why is this happening?

The Bank of Canada has kept its interest rate parked at 2.25% since December and markets expect it to stay there for the rest of 2026. Meanwhile the US Federal Reserve is holding rates significantly higher. When one country pays more interest than another, global money flows toward the higher rate. Right now that means money is flowing toward the US dollar and away from the Canadian dollar.

Canada is also a petrocurrency, meaning its dollar tends to move with oil prices. When oil falls, the Canadian dollar usually falls with it. With oil prices dropping on Iran ceasefire news this week, the loonie got hit from both sides at once.

Here is what this actually means for different people:

• If you are an American planning a trip to Canada, this is genuinely great news. Your US dollars buy significantly more Canadian food, hotels, and hockey tickets than they did a year ago. The exchange rate is basically a built-in discount on your entire vacation.

• If you are a Canadian buying anything imported from the US, which includes most electronics, cars, and a huge amount of groceries, everything just got more expensive. Your dollar stretches less across the border.

• Forex traders are watching the 1.40 level closely. If USD/CAD breaks above that, it signals the loonie could weaken further and the short sellers will pile in even harder.

The Munch Take: The Canadian dollar is at its weakest level of the year and the two things most likely to save it, higher oil prices and Bank of Canada rate hikes, are both moving in the wrong direction right now. For Americans this is a free discount. For Canadians this is an invisible tax on everything you import from the south.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Friday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 🇺🇲 The U.S. Dollar is at a critical point.

2. 🥇 This is a crazy stat about gold.

3. 👀 Jeff Bezos has a new company?

4. 🤯 Japan might do something crazy.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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