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☕️ GM Munchers! We made it to Friday. I told my wife I deserved a reward for surviving this market week. She said "you literally just sat at a computer watching numbers go down." I said "exactly, that takes mental fortitude." She wasn’t impressed.

On today’s menu:

• 📉 The Oil Nightmare Returns

• 😬 Private Credit Is Cracking

• 💘 Volkswagen, Bumble & Dollar General

• 🚀 Is This Small Mineral Stock About to Explode?

• 🛢️ The U.S. Allows The Purchase of Russian Oil

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

📉 The Oil Nightmare Returns

If you were hoping for a chill Friday to coast into the weekend, the market had other plans. Like erasing $1 trillion in market cap and destroying any chance you'd leave the office early in a good mood.

The Short Answer: Oil went up. Stocks went down. Tale as old as time.

The Emergency Release Failed: Remember that historic 400 million barrel oil dump the government released to calm markets? The market literally laughed it off. Oil climbed a wild 10% yesterday and is now sitting at $101/barrel after Iran's new Supreme Leader declared the Strait of Hormuz will "remain closed." Governments fired their biggest bullet and the market said "cute, but no."

Trump Demands Fed Intervention: As stocks bled out, President Trump demanded the Federal Reserve step in to rescue the economy "IMMEDIATELY." All caps. Very calm. Very measured.

Powell's Impossible Choice: Politics aside, this puts the Fed in a nightmare position. If Powell caves to political pressure and cuts rates now, he pours gasoline on the inflation fire (oil's already at $101, remember?). If he doesn't cut? The economy keeps bleeding and everyone blames him anyway. There's no winning move here.

The Munch Take: We're stuck in the worst possible scenario: slowing economy, rising inflation, and the Fed caught between political pressure and actual policy. This too shall pass, but it'll be bumpy. When quality stocks get stupid cheap from panic selling, we're buying. Until then, we're watching the chaos unfold with popcorn and low expectations.

😬 Private Credit Is Imploding

The $1.8 trillion private credit market is cracking, and Wall Street's terrified we're watching a slow-motion Bear Stearns moment.

This week, two massive players told investors "sorry, you can't have your money back."

Morgan Stanley's 5% Chokehold:

• Investors in Morgan Stanley's $7.6 billion North Haven Private Income Fund tried to withdraw 11% of shares. Morgan Stanley capped redemptions at 5%, returning only $169 million. Less than half the people wanting out got their money.

• Why? Morgan Stanley admitted they're limiting withdrawals to "avoid asset sales during market dislocation." Translation: if we sell these illiquid loans now to pay you, we'll destroy the fund. You're staying put.

Blue Owl's Permanent Padlock:

• Blue Owl Capital ($300 billion in assets) did something way more drastic. They permanently shut the door on quarterly withdrawals for one retail fund. Investors now have zero say over when they get paid. Blue Owl will trickle out "episodic payments" as they sell assets.

• They dumped $1.4 billion in loans via fire sale. Their shares plummeted, dragging down Blackstone, Apollo, and Ares.

The Hidden Villain (It's AI):

Private credit funds lent hundreds of billions to legacy software companies. Investors fear AI will destroy those businesses' earnings power. If they become obsolete, they'll default on massive loans. Everyone's stampeding for exits before defaults hit.

The Munch Take: When the biggest private credit managers gate withdrawals and permanently lock investors in, that's not normal volatility. That's "we have a serious liquidity problem" territory. Private credit sold itself as the safe alternative to public markets, but illiquidity's a feature, not a bug. You can't panic sell if they won't let you sell. The exits are closing.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

🚗 $VOW3 Volkswagen announced they're cutting 50,000 jobs by 2030 while profit slid to the lowest level in almost a decade. The stock's down over 50% in the last 5 years. Cool camper vans for Instagram. Absolutely catastrophic stock performance for your retirement account. At least the vans photograph well.

💕 $BMBL Bumble ripped 34.15% after revenue beat expectations and the company pointed to "early signs of stabilization" in its user base. Translation: people are getting desperate enough to pay for dating apps again. The loneliness economy strikes back. Your romantic failures are now a publicly traded growth story.

🛒 $DG Dollar General face-planted 6.14% despite being up 81% over the last year and literally the only store most of us can still afford. Management blamed slower sales on winter storms and "uncertain consumer demand." Yeah, consumers are uncertain because they're broke. Dollar General discovering that even discount shoppers eventually run out of dollars is peak 2026.

🚀 $FLY Firefly Aerospace climbed 14.27% after successfully completing a launch and demonstration mission. Aerospace is all the hype in 2026 apparently. Space stocks are back, baby. Your move, Elon. The competition's actually launching things that work on the first try, which must be a refreshing change of pace for the industry.

💻 $ADBE Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen is stepping down after 18 years to hand the baton to someone else. He'll remain as Chair of the Board, which is corporate speak for "I'm not actually leaving, I just won't have to deal with earnings calls anymore." The market clearly isn't thrilled about the leadership musical chairs. Stock dropped over 6% after-hours.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Friday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 🚀 Is this small mineral stock about to explode?

2. 🇷🇺 The U.S. is now allowing the purchase of Russian oil.

3. 🏘️ The average mortgage rate has climbed to 6.11%.

4. 😬 A list of AI-related layoffs this year.

5. ‼️ A reminder of what the market did 6 years ago yesterday.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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