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π Trade Deal, Disney Crashes & Jobs Report

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βοΈ GM Munchers! Everyone braced for a market crash yesterday so naturally it rallied hard. Classic. It's like when I leave dishes in the sink overnight but wake up early to make my wife coffee. Crisis narrowly avoided.
On todayβs menu:
π€ The US-India Deal That Saved Monday
π° Disney Beat Earnings. Stock Still Dropped 7%.
π Earnings Week: Buckle Up
π€« The Government Just Hid the Jobs Report
π Is This Prop Firm Making a Comeback?
Yesterdayβs numbers:
S&P 500 | 6,976 | +0.54% |
Nasdaq | 23,592 | +0.56% |
Dow Jones | 49,407 | +1.05% |
Bitcoin | $78,400 | +2.05% |
BREAKING NEWS
π€ The US-India Deal That Saved Monday
After the absolute carnage on Friday β metals obliterated, Bitcoin in freefall β the market needed a win. It got one.
Here's the deal: Trump announced a massive trade agreement with India. The highlights are big. India agreed to stop buying Russian oil β a huge shift since it was one of Russia's biggest customers. Instead, India is committing to buy over $500 billion in US energy, tech, and agriculture.
In return, the US is dropping tariffs on Indian goods from 25% down to 18%, and Trump says India will cut its own tariffs on US goods to zero.
Why markets care: This deal is like when you're absolutely certain you locked your front door, then realize you didn't β but also somehow nothing bad happened anyway. The fear of a market crash today was real but then India just... made it all go away.
The Munch Take: Things are still very rocky but this is textbook risk-on. Energy stocks and agricultural plays benefit directly. The trade war scare was one of the big clouds hanging over the market β one less cloud means more sunshine for bulls. Enjoy it while it lasts.

π° Disney Beat Earnings. Stock Still Dropped 7%.

Disney reported Monday and, on paper, crushed it. EPS came in at $1.63 vs the $1.57 expected. Revenue hit $25.98 billion vs $25.74 billion expected β up 5% year over year. They're even on track to buy back $7 billion in stock. Sounds amazing, right?
So why did the stock drop 7%?
Because Wall Street doesn't care about the magic kingdom β it cares about the money kingdom. The experiences unit is only expecting "modest" growth, international visitors are staying home, and Disney's got prelaunch costs piling up for a new cruise line and "World of Frozen" at Disneyland Paris. When your biggest cash cow starts limping, Wall Street doesn't stick around to see if it gets better. It just leaves.
The Munch Take: This is a classic "sell the news" moment. Expectations were sky high and "good" wasn't good enough. The theme park slowdown is the real story here. Weβre not touching this stock, or theyβre $12 churros.
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STOCKS
π Earnings Week: Buckle Up
This is arguably the biggest earnings week of Q4 season. The calendar is absolutely stacked, and it all comes down to two big questions: Is AI actually making money? And is the American consumer still spending?
Here's who's up and why it matters:
PayPal (Tue before open): This one tells us if regular people are still spending money. If they say wallets are closing, that's bad news for basically everything.
Eli Lilly (Wed before open): The weight loss drug king. Expected to pull in $17.8B thanks to Zepbound and Mounjaro. But one whiff of supply problems or a competitor showing up and this stock crumbles.
Alphabet/Google (Wed after close): The biggest report of the week. We want to see Cloud growth and hear about Gemini 3 AI. The catch? If they announce they're spending $90B+ on AI, their own profits take a hit and the stock tanks β even if everything else is solid.
Amazon (Thu after close): AWS is expected to bring in $34.9 billion. Rumors say Amazon's total AI spending could hit $150 billion this year. That sounds scary for Amazon's stock short-term, but it's actually rocket fuel for chip makers like Nvidia and AMD.
The Munch Take: You don't need to trade these stocks to care. When the big boys report, they move the entire market. Pay attention this week closer than you paid attention to that girl in math class who you were 100% sure winked at you. (She didn't. It was allergies.)
MARKET OVERVIEW
πΏ Tasty Movers & Shakers
π SpaceX just swallowed xAI whole, making it the most valuable private company on the planet. An IPO in 2026 was already the rumor β this just poured gasoline on that fire.
π°οΈ $HOOD Robinhood dropped below $90 for the first time since June, sliding almost 10% yesterday and already down 22% in 2026. The app that let everyone think they were a genius trader is now reminding them they're not.
π¬ $NVDA Drama at Nvidia. The CEO is apparently done pouring money into OpenAI β the $100 billion tap is being turned off. Something's clearly gone sideways between them, and Jensen doesn't look happy about it. Stock slipped almost 3% yesterday on the news.
β $PLTR Palantir crushed it after the bell. Revenue came in at $1.41 billion against $1.33 billion expected, beat on earnings too, and the stock jumped in after-hours. The AI darling is still doing its thing.
π Rough one for commodity traders yesterday. Natural gas prices cratered 21% in a single day β the biggest daily drop since January 2024. If you were long gas, yesterday was not your day.
BIG PICTURE
π€« The Government Just Hid the Jobs Report. Yeah.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed Monday that the January jobs report β normally due on Friday β is not happening. Why? Theyβre blaming it on the partial government shutdown that started on Saturday.
Why markets care: The jobs report is one of the single most important pieces of data the Fed uses to make rate decisions. No data means both the Fed and traders are flying blind on the health of the economy. Less chaos on Friday, sure β but at what cost?
The Munch Take: We're not saying anyone's hiding something on purpose. We're just saying the timing is suspicious as heck. The Fed needs this data, traders need this data, and right now nobody's getting it. Until the data gets released, itβs just one less thing anchoring the market and that means more noise, more speculation, and more volatility. Fun times.
π Pre-Market Fuel
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