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๐ Trade Tensions & Tariffs: Trump's Two-Front Battle

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โ๏ธ Happy Monday, Munchers! If your portfolio needs a stiff drink this morning, blame the latest trade headlines. While you were sleeping, things got spicy between the world's largest economies.
On todayโs menu:
๐ Trade Tensions & Tariffs: Trump's Two-Front Battle
๐ฅ The Prop Firm Industryโs Best Instant Funding Program
โฝ๏ธ Whatโs Happening With Oil?
๐ฆ Buffett Passes the Torch at Berkshire
๐ช๐บ Crypto Privacy In Europe Is Dissapearing
The S&P 500 had its ninth consecutive rally, making it the longest winning streak in 20 years, since November 2004.
Fridayโs numbers:
S&P 500 | 5,686 | +1.47% |
Nasdaq | 17,977 | +1.51% |
Dow Jones | 41,317 | +1.39% |
Gold | $3,240 | -2.00% |
Bitcoin | $94,682 | +0.39% |
BREAKING NEWS
๐ Trade Tensions & Tariffs: Trump's Two-Front Battle
BREAKING: President Trump says he has no plans to speak with China's President Xi this week.
Trump says China is "ripping us off" and Chinese and US officials are talking about "different things."
โ The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)
11:47 PM โข May 4, 2025
Just 30 minutes before we hit send, President Trump dropped a diplomatic bombshell: he has zero plans to speak with China's President Xi this week.
Accompanying this cold shoulder was a classic Trumpian assessment that China is "ripping us off" and both sides are "talking about different things."
This abruptly kills market hopes for a U.S.-China trade thaw that had been cautiously building since last week's positive signals from Chinese officials.
But wait, there's more...

Hollywood Gets Hit With 100% Tariffs
BREAKING: President Trump imposes a 100% tariff on all movies produced outside of the US.
โ The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)
11:28 PM โข May 4, 2025
In a move that would make any screenwriter question their plot's believability, Trump imposed a 100% tariff on all foreign-produced films.
The justification? National security concerns over foreign influence in Hollywood.
The stated goal: bring movie production back to American soil. The market interpretation: nobody's safe from the new wave of protectionism.

What This Means For Your Trades
These headlines aren't just news โ they're sentiment shifters that move billions in capital. Here's what to watch:
China-Exposed Sectors: Semiconductors, luxury goods, and industrials could take an immediate hit as investors reverse their optimistic positioning from last week.
Safe Haven Rotation: Expect capital to flow toward traditional shelters โ gold, the dollar, and Treasurys โ as uncertainty rises.
The Ripple Effect: While movie tariffs might seem niche, traders are reading this as a canary in the coal mine for broader protectionist policies.
Fed's Response: The Federal Reserve meeting Tuesday-Wednesday takes on new importance. Rate cut odds remain slim (~3.2%), but Powell's comments on trade tensions could send markets moving.

Why Headlines Matter More Than Data Right Now
Markets aren't just trading on what's happening โ they're trading on what traders think will happen next. With sentiment fragile and earnings season in full swing (Tyson Foods, On Semiconductor, and Loews report early this week), even small surprises could trigger outsized moves.
๐๏ธ Munch Tip: In markets driven by mood rather than math, it's not just about being right โ it's about knowing what everyone else thinks is right.
Trade carefully, and maybe postpone that foreign film night. Tickets just doubled.
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โ larkfunding (@larkfunding)
4:14 PM โข May 3, 2025
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COMMODITIES
โฝ OPEC+ Floods Market, Oil Takes a Bath

OPEC+ just pulled the ultimate "watch this" move in the oil markets, and traders are scrambling for towels.
The Crude Awakening
Saudi-led OPEC+ is cranking up production by another 411,000 barrels per day in June, following a similar May increase. The market's reaction was swift and brutal:
U.S. crude plunged 4%+ to ~$55.80/barrel
Brent crude dropped ~3.9% to ~$58.90
YTD oil prices have sunk over 20%
Why the sudden supply tsunami? Analysts point to market share hunger and geopolitical chess against non-OPEC producers. Either way, the market clearly wasn't prepared for this much crude generosity.
Winners & Losers Cheat Sheet
On the Ropes:
Energy giants (ExxonMobil, Chevron)
Oil service companies facing margin compression
Petrocurrencies (CAD, RUB)
Popping Champagne:
Airlines and transportation (cheaper fuel costs)
Consumer discretionary (more spending money)
Your summer road trip budget
What It Really Means ๐งต
The silver lining? Markets are interpreting this as supply-driven rather than demand destruction. That's crucial - it signals oversupply, not economic weakness.
This could boost consumer and industrial stocks as input costs fall, while energy stocks take the hit. But stay vigilant for any signs that weak demand is contributing - that would be the recession warning nobody wants to hear.
Until then, enjoy the gas pump reprieve. Just remember: in commodities as in comedy, timing is everything.
INVESTING
๐ฆ Buffett Passes the Torch at Berkshire

While you were deciding whether to keep that pandemic sourdough starter alive this weekend, the Oracle of Omaha was making slightly bigger decisions.

The Succession Plan Becomes Official
Warren Buffett officially announced at this weekend's Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting that he's stepping down as CEO, confirming Greg Abel (who oversees Berkshire's non-insurance businesses) will take the reins.
This marks the end of perhaps the most legendary CEO run in investing history, but markets are treating it as the well-choreographed handoff it is. No drama, no surprises โ just like Buffett himself would want it.
The 94-year-old billionaire praised Abel as "better than me in many ways," which is either the ultimate compliment or the ultimate humble-brag. Either way, Berkshire's $160 billion cash pile now has a new guardian.

The Oracle's Parting Wisdom
Buffett didn't go quietly into retirement, delivering some pointed market commentary:
On Protectionism: "Trade should not be a weapon" โ a direct shot across the bow at mounting tariff tensions
On Valuations: Parts of the market look "stretched," but Berkshire is staying patient (translation: we're not buying this froth)
On Leadership: Age is no barrier to contribution โ a reminder that wisdom doesn't have an expiration date
For traders, the key signal is Berkshire's massive cash position. That $160 billion war chest suggests Buffett and team are positioned for a significant market correction, waiting to go shopping when prices make sense.
Berkshire Hathaway's cash pile grew to a record $347.7 billion as of March 31. $brk #brk2025
liveblog: finance.yahoo.com/news/live/berkโฆ
โ Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance)
12:45 PM โข May 3, 2025

What It Means For Your Portfolio
Berkshire's transition playbook offers three critical reminders:
Leadership succession doesn't have to be disruptive when properly planned
Dry powder (cash) matters when valuations get stretched
Focus on fundamentals, not market noise โ Buffett's eternal message
As the torch passes from one of history's greatest investors, the strategy remains unchanged: patience, fundamentals, and the discipline to wait for the right price.
Remember: In investing as in buffets, it's not about being first in line โ it's about knowing which dishes are worth your plate space.
Buffett while holding up his Coca-Cola can:
"For 94 years, Iโve been able to drink what I want, do what I want & Iโve defied all the predictions of what shouldโve happened to me..Charlie & I...never really exercised all that much. We werenโt carefully preserving ourselves"
โ The Transcript (@TheTranscript_)
4:00 PM โข May 3, 2025
๐ Pre-Market Fuel
๐ช Munchy Memes
Berkshire Hathaway investors
โ Trung Phan (@TrungTPhan)
2:33 PM โข May 2, 2025
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