It’s Friday, Lark Traders! And this is Lark Digest, the trading newsletter that’s way more direct and confident than Papa Powell.

Why do we say that?

Let’s find out.

On the menu:

• What the heck is happening in the market? 🤨 

• Why 90% of trading content is a scam 💣️ 

• How this trader made almost $3,000 💰️

• Some weekend treats 🍪

POWELL SPOOKS THE MARKET 🤠

A lot happened this week. We had…

1/ Interest Rate Decision. The Fed kept rates at 5.5%.

2/ Jerome Powell. After keeping rates the same, Powell gave a press conference where he seemed more unconfident than a 13-year-old on their first day of middle school.

3/ NFP. Based on when you’re reading this, this probably just got released.

Now, before you go back to swiping on TikTok from boredom, bear with us.

The market moved a ton from these events because they’re super important. Over the next few months, these events will be dictating how easy it is to catch some pips.

So, let’s understand what happened and why it’s important.

1/ Inflation is cooling. Rates stayed at 5.5% for the 4th straight meeting because the Fed is confident that inflation is cooling.

2/ They’re confident. But not enough. Powell basically said, “The data has been good. We’re confident. But we need more data to be more confident.” Talk about acting like a teenager…

3/ Nothing needs to break. The entire committee agrees that cutting rates, eventually, will be appropriate.

4/ Employment is everything. The committee said if unemployment increases, it would “absolutely” call for rate cuts to come sooner.

And if this all seems like a bunch of confusing signals, well, that’s exactly how the market took it as well.

Even our beloved Bitcoin didn’t know how to respond.

The question is, what does this all mean?

1/ March will be huge. The next major Fed meeting is in March so we need to wait tight until then.

2/ Stocks and risk assets could fly. At least, historically, that’s what we often see.

3/ Bad news for safe havens. Unless some new and unexpected catalyst enters the market, a switch to a dovish policy is typically bad for safe havens (think USD, JPY, CHF, bonds).

At Lark, we’re still digesting. The goal, though, is to always take in as many variables as possible so that we can best align ourselves over the next few months.

Easier said than done!

90% OF TRADING CONTENT IS A SCAM 😬 

Did you catch our latest YouTube video? We stepped on some toes, but it had to be said…

HOW THIS TRADER MADE $2919.14 🤑 

One of the main themes of Lark Digest is sharing insider data.

For years, prop firms operated in secrecy. But now, there’s a lot more transparency.

And to maintain the good vibes, we want to share some stats on a trader who just received an incredible payout of almost $3,000.

What’s even more impressive is that this trader did it on a 2-Stage, $50,000 Simulated Funded Account. That means they generated ~6% throughout 20 active trading days.

Let’s dive a bit deeper:

• Win Rate = 64.42%

• Days Before Payout = 50

• Average Risk-Reward = 0.91

• Trades Taken = 163

• Projected annual return = $16,129.99

What’s the lesson here?

1/ Win rate is overrated. This trader losses over 35% of their trades. But that doesn’t matter. They’re still profitable. Don’t get fooled by traders online claiming 90%+ win rates.

2/ Sample size is everything. This trader took, on average, 8 trades a day. They were active! But such a large sample size allowed their edge to play out. As we always say, measure in 100s. The next trade doesn’t matter.

3/ Think long term. Is a $3,000 payout going to change your life? For most, no. But with these stats applied over 365 days, their projected annual return is over $16,000. For many, that’s life-changing.

WEEKEND TREATS 📖 

• Tensions between the US and Iran are pretty hot right now. This is something to keep an eye on. Any escalations will no doubt be a market mover.

• The creator of Ethereum just turned 30. For all Crypto enthusiasts, his recent blog post is worth a read.

• The US is selling $130 million in Bitcoin. Not to worry, we’re confident Michael Saylor will snatch them all up.

• A great Teddy quote we came across.

• What I’m listening to this weekend.

DIGESTIBLE MEMES 🍪 

ACTIVE GOODIES? 😏