Anthropic's IPO Could Price It At $2 Trillion

Anthropic's confidential filing sets up what investors expect to be the largest IPO in history — a reported $2 trillion or more, against a last private round at $965 billion. That would be roughly 17 times the $100 to $120 billion of year-end revenue backers project. The free report walks through the math, plus six other 2026 IPO plays that cleared our screen.

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☕️ GM Munchers! It’s bank earnings week, which means I’ll spend the next few days pretending I understand net interest income while nodding confidently. Fake it till the quarterly report makes it.

On today’s menu:

• ⛽ Trump Cut A Diesel Deal With Putin

• 🌯 The Starbucks-Chipotle Deal Is Dead

• 🍿 Yesterday’s Tasty Movers & Shakers

• 💉 Moderna Is Back From The Dead

• 🇺🇲 The US Dollar Continues To Fly

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

⛽ Trump Cut A Diesel Deal With Putin & It’s Complicated

Here’s a headline nobody had on their 2026 bingo card: the U.S. is buying diesel from Russia. President Trump announced Friday that after a phone call with Vladimir Putin, Russia agreed to release more than 4 million tons of diesel onto the global market, and the Treasury issued a special waiver to let the sanctioned fuel flow. Trump promised prices “will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST.”

Then the market laughed. On Monday, Brent crude surged above $107 a barrel, its highest in weeks, after Ukraine’s President Zelensky accused Russia of striking six Ukrainian energy facilities in a single day. On top of that, a third oil supertanker was hit and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz. So yeah… So much for the “energy ceasefire” Trump floated over the weekend.

Why does this matter so much? Because diesel is already up roughly 68% since the Iran war began, with the national average near $6.28 a gallon. Diesel powers trucks, trains, and farm equipment, so when it spikes, the price of nearly everything follows.

• 📉 The deal won’t move the needle: Experts say the Russian diesel volume is tiny versus U.S. demand, calling it a desperate, short-term headline fix.

• ⚔️ The real driver is still conflict: As long as tankers burn in Hormuz and refineries get bombed, the supply crunch and the risk premium in oil aren’t going anywhere.

• 🛢️ High oil keeps inflation sticky: That keeps those sky-high bond yields elevated, which keeps pressure on the broader stock market.

Now here’s what most people miss: when oil spikes and tankers burn, somebody’s quietly getting rich. A few corners of the market love this chaos.

• 🚢 Tanker shippers: When ships get hit in Hormuz, the ones still floating become gold. Freight rates soar, and names like $FRO Frontline, $STNG Scorpio Tankers, and $DHT DHT Holdings ride the wave.

• ⛏️ U.S. drillers: Pump oil far from the Middle East and every price spike is a pay raise. Think $XOM ExxonMobil, $CVX Chevron, and shale player $FANG Diamondback.

• 🏭 U.S. refiners: Crushed diesel supply plus record prices equals fat margins for whoever turns crude into fuel. Names like $VLO Valero, $MPC Marathon, and $PSX Phillips 66.

The Munch Take: The Russia diesel deal is noise dressed up as news. It won’t dent $6 diesel, and Monday’s oil spike proved it in real time. The real story hasn’t changed in months: energy stays hot as long as the Middle East and Ukraine stay hot, and that keeps inflation sticky and bond yields high. But here’s the twist worth chewing on. Everyone sees high gas prices as pure pain, and for your wallet, they are. Yet that same chaos quietly fattens the wallets of the shippers, drillers, and refiners on the other side of the pump. We’re not making a buy call on any of them. It’s just the oldest lesson in markets: in every crisis, money doesn’t vanish into thin air. It just quietly changes hands. The trick is knowing whose pocket it lands in.

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NEWS OF THE DAY

🌯 The Starbucks-Chipotle Deal Is Dead

Well, that was fast. Just days after reports that Starbucks explored buying Chipotle in what would’ve been the biggest restaurant deal ever, Starbucks killed it stone dead. “We are not buying Chipotle,” a spokesperson said flatly on Monday.

The stocks immediately traded places. $CMG Chipotle dropped about 3-4%, giving back the pop it got last week, while $SBUX Starbucks climbed about 1%. That near-perfect reversal tells you exactly how each side felt about the deal.

Here’s why it makes sense. Chipotle jumped on the rumor because a buyout usually means shareholders get a premium. No buyer means that “takeover hope” value evaporates, so the stock sank right back. Starbucks rose for the opposite reason: investors never loved the idea of a massive, expensive acquisition while the company is still fixing itself.

• 🙅 Analysts called it: Wall Street was skeptical all along, with one calling a deal a “low-probability outcome.”

• ☕ Starbucks stays focused: CEO Brian Niccol keeps steering his coffee turnaround, and early signs are encouraging.

• 📅 Chipotle’s real test is October 28: With no buyer propping it up, Q3 earnings become the moment of truth, and traffic recovery is the number to watch.

The Munch Take: This is the right outcome. A company fixing its own business has no business making the biggest restaurant deal in history, and Starbucks shareholders agree, which is why the stock rose. For Chipotle holders, the drop stings, but it’s just the fantasy premium leaving the building. Now the burrito chain has to stand on its own, which makes the October 28 earnings report everything. Strong traffic, and it’s an interesting beaten-down name. Weak traffic, and the story gets ugly. We’re not buyers of either here. We’d rather watch real numbers than gamble on a buried rumor.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

📈 $FICO Fair Isaac ripped 10.85% after getting a boost from analysts, bouncing back hard from a brutal stretch. When the company behind your credit score moves double digits, somebody’s doing the math differently.

📱 $META Meta climbed 3.38% as investors piled back into the AI heavyweight. The Muse hype keeps giving this stock a reason to run, even on a rough day for tech.

🛒 $EBAY eBay jumped about 4% after Morgan Stanley named it a top pick and raised its price target to $132. Turns out the internet’s original garage sale still has some fight left in it.

🍷 $STZ Constellation Brands rose 3.07%, continuing its climb on the back of strong earnings. Beer and spirits remain a reliable pour when nervous money looks for safety.

📉 $CIEN Ciena cratered 9.95% as the fiber-optic and AI networking names got crushed in a tech selloff. When investors get scared about the AI buildout, the picks-and-shovels crowd feels it first.

💡 $LITE Lumentum tumbled 9.78% right alongside its optical peers. After riding the AI wave up all year, these names are learning that momentum cuts both ways.

🔋 $BE Bloom Energy dropped about 7% after setting its earnings date, as the AI-power trade cooled off.

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CHART OF THE DAY

💉 Moderna Is Back From The Dead & Nobody Saw It Coming

Moderna was the golden child of the COVID era, the little biotech that struck it rich making vaccines when the whole world needed them. Honestly, I’d have been perfectly happy to never hear the company’s name again. But the market has other plans, because $MRNA is now up more than 600% this year, making it one of the best-performing stocks in the entire S&P 500. It started 2026 around $29 and now trades near $225. Wild.

So what on earth is driving this comeback? One word: cancer. Moderna has pivoted hard from COVID shots to something far more exciting, personalized cancer vaccines. And the results have been turning heads.

• 🧬 The August moonshot: The stock exploded 140% in a single day on positive late-stage trial data for its melanoma (skin cancer) vaccine, developed with Merck. That’s the kind of result that rewrites a company’s entire future.

• 🏛️ Washington jumped in: On October 9, the stock popped another 14% after reports that the NIH, a major government health agency, plans to push to speed up the development of personalized cancer vaccines.

• 📈 The steady climb: Between those two catalysts, the stock just kept grinding higher through September, marching from $100 toward $200 as excitement built.

The Munch Take: Here’s the honest read on a stock that’s up 600%. The cancer vaccine story is genuinely one of the most promising things in all of medicine, and if it works at scale, this run could look small in hindsight. But let’s be real: a stock that jumped 140% in a single day is pure, high-octane speculation, not a calm investment. We don’t chase rockets that have already launched, no matter how exciting the mission. The science is thrilling. The entry price up here is terrifying. We’re watching this one with popcorn, not a buy order.

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 👀 Here’s the stock symbol I promised (Ad)

2. 🏘️ Mortgage rates are getting crazy.

3. 🇺🇲 The US Dollar continues to fly.

4. 🤯 This is a crazy stat about people earning $300,000/year.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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