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πŸ“‰ Trump Just Said "Civilization Dies Tonight"

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BREAKING NEWS

🚨 Trump Just Said "Civilization Dies Tonight"

Never a dull moment in these markets. I went to start my 4th coffee of the day and in between the heart palpitations, I did a double-take when I saw the above post.

Trump posted on Truth Social this morning that a "whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again." He added, almost helpfully, that he didn't want that to happen. But it probably will.

Yikes. Here's what we know:

  • The deadline is 8pm ET tonight. Iran has until then to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on every power plant and bridge in the country. Trump's words, not mine.

  • The market isn't panicking. Yet. $SPY futures are down about -0.7% on the morning. Not nothing. But not nuclear-war pricing either. Wall Street is reading this as maximum-pressure posturing, not an apocalypse.

  • Oil is a different story. WTI crude is up over 2% this morning to $115 a barrel. Gas nationally is already at $4.11 a gallon. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for six weeks. Every day it stays shut is another gut punch to energy markets.

  • U.S. strikes already hit Kharg Island overnight. That's Iran's main oil export hub. The clock didn't wait for 8pm.

The Munch Take: The market is telling you something interesting right now. A sitting U.S. president says a civilization will be wiped out tonight, and futures drop less than 1%. Either Wall Street has genuinely priced in "Trump always bluffs." Or it's dangerously wrong. The off-ramp exists. Trump left it open in the same post. Either way, my wife already stocked up on groceries last week because she thought gas would get worse. She was right. She's always right.

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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

πŸš— Your Used Car Is Now Outperforming Your Portfolio

Gas is at $4.11 a gallon. New cars average $49,000. And the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for six weeks.

Somewhere in that math, used cars became the hottest asset nobody planned on owning.

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index β€” the wholesale pricing barometer that dealers actually care about β€” jumped 4% in February compared to a year earlier, hitting its highest level since September 2023. And that was before gas crossed $4. Dealers were already stocking up. Now consumers are piling in behind them.

Here's why it's not stopping:

  • Tariffs pushed up new 2026 model prices, sending more buyers into the used market and driving additional demand.

  • Leasing hit its low point in 2022, meaning fewer high-quality, low-mileage certified pre-owned vehicles are available right now. Less supply. More buyers. You know how this ends.

  • The average price of a used car up to 8 years old is now $30,202 β€” up 27.6% from $23,668 in 2020.

The wild card is EVs. Car-shopping platforms in the U.S. have reported a sharp increase in consumer interest for EVs since the war began. Whether that interest converts to sales is a different story.

The Munch Take: The Iran war was supposed to be a geopolitics story. Turns out it's also a car dealership story. Gas cracks $4 and suddenly that beat-up 2019 Honda CR-V on the lot looks like a blue-chip investment.

πŸͺ Munchy Memes

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