1 Stock to Own by July 31st

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☕️ GM Munchers! Spain just knocked out France, which is a great reminder that "guaranteed winner" is the most expensive phrase in both soccer and investing.

On today’s menu:

• 📉 Markets Just Got The Green Light, But There's A Catch

• 🛢️ Trump's Iran Blockade: What It Means for Your Portfolio This Week

• 🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

• 🥈 Silver Just Lost Half Its Value. Is It A Bargain Now?

• 👀 This stock Just Crashed 30% & Is At A 1-Year Low

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

📉 Markets Just Got The Green Light, But There's A Catch

For months now, one word has been scaring the stock market: inflation. Prices kee climbing, the Federal Reserve keeps frowning and everyone is worried that interest rates might get cranked up higher. So this week, the whole market was holding its breath waiting for one report. When it finally dropped yesterday, everybody took a sigh of relief.

Yes, finally some good news on prices. The June inflation report came in at 3.5%, way better than the 3.8% everyone expected and a big drop from 4.2% the month before. It was the biggest one-month cooldown since 2020 and Wall Street basically did a happy dance.

Why does one number matter so much? Because cooler inflation means the Federal Reserve is way less likely to raise interest rates, and low rates are like fuel for the stock market.

Here's how the news rippled across every market:

• 📈 Stocks jumped. The S&P 500 shot straight up and beaten-down chip stocks like Micron bounced almost 5%. Traders love the idea of the Fed staying calm.

• 🥇 Gold shot up too. Gold, which has been struggling for months, popped over 2% toward $4,100 before retreating to $4,050. Remember, a weaker dollar makes gold shine again.

• 💵 The dollar dropped. When rate hikes look less likely, the dollar loses some of its muscle, and it fell about half a percent.

• ₿ Even Bitcoin climbed. It rose toward the $65,000 level as investors became more comfortable with risk.

The Munch Take: Here is the catch nobody at the party wants to hear. This report is a photo of the past, specifically June, when oil prices were falling. But the Iran ceasefire has now broken down and oil prices have been climbing ever since. So next month's number could look a lot less pretty. That’s why the odds of a rate hike actually climbed yesterday when they would normally drop. Enjoy the good news but remember that it’s telling you what already happened, not what’s coming.

🛢️ Trump's Iran Blockade: What It Means for Your Portfolio This Week

Big news out of the Middle East yesterday. President Trump announced a "full blockade" on Iran, which kicked in at 4 p.m. Eastern. He says the Strait of Hormuz stays open to everyone else, and the blockade only targets ships tied to Iran. In practice it is messier than that. It covers Iran's whole coastline, every port, and any ship doing business with Iran, and those vessels can be stopped, boarded, and seized.

He also reversed course on something big. On Monday he wanted to charge every ship a 20% fee to cross the strait, which would have cost about $30 million per supertanker. Shipping authorities said there was no legal basis for it. By Tuesday he dropped it, saying Gulf countries will make "massive" investments in America instead.

Here's how markets took it:

• 🛢️ Oil kept climbing. U.S. crude closed up 1.5% at $79.34, and Brent rose to $84.73. That is on top of Monday's monster 9% jump, the biggest single-day move since 2020.

• ⛽ Your gas bill is next. Analysts say the national average could hit $4 a gallon within a week, and stations start passing it along within days.

• 📈 Rate hike bets exploded. Traders on Polymarket now put the odds of a rate hike in 2026 at 71%. Expensive oil means higher prices everywhere, and the Fed hates that.

The Munch Take: Watch what actually changed, not what the headline screamed. "Full blockade" sounds terrifying, but the strait staying open for everyone else is genuinely calming news, and dropping that 20% toll removed a huge threat to global shipping. That’s why oil rose 1.5% instead of another 9%. The market read the fine print. But don’t get comfortable. Six ships crossed the strait in a 12-hour window last weekend, down from about 20 a day normally. Traffic like that does not recover overnight, and every day of it flows straight into your gas tank. The scariest part is not oil at $79. It is that 71% rate-hike bet, because that is the market saying the era of cheap money might be over.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

💀 $IBM Big Blue had the worst day in its entire history, crashing 25% after warning that Q2 earnings will miss expectations. A company that has been around over a century just had its ugliest day ever, which tells you just how ugly it was.

⚡ $CLSK CleanSpark surged 8.62% after locking in a 20-year data center lease worth $6.6 billion in contracted revenue. Two decades of guaranteed money will do wonders for a stock.

🛡️ $CRWD CrowdStrike jumped 12.14% as IBM's ugly numbers showed companies are shifting where they spend their tech budgets. One giant's bad day was another one's payday.

🇰🇷 $SKHY SK Hynix rocketed 27.29% as new leveraged ETFs pulled in a wave of everyday traders. Give retail investors a turbo button and they will absolutely press it.

💊 $BIIB Biogen sank 8.17% after its new Alzheimer's drug trial results failed to impress. In pharma, "pretty good" results are usually just another way of saying goodbye to your gains.

CHART OF THE DAY

🥈 Silver Just Lost Half Its Value. Is It A Bargain Now?

Brutal. Silver has crashed more than 52% since hitting its all-time high of $121 back in January. It now sits around $57 and if you bought at the top, you’ve now lost half your money in just six months.

This crash has been pure violence. On January 30th, silver fell over 30% in about 30 hours, the biggest one-day plunge in its entire history. In case you need a reminder, silver always moves two to three times harder than gold, in both directions.

So is it cheap now? Here are the real numbers:

• 📏 The key ratio flipped. The gold-to-silver ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. During January's frenzy it collapsed into the 40s, a level that historically screams "too hot." Today it sits around 70, versus a long-run average of 55 to 65. That means silver is now cheap compared to gold, not expensive.

• 📉 This crash is not unusual. Silver did this in 1980 and again in 2011. Both times it fell even harder, roughly 60 to 78% from the peak. A 52% drop is painful, but it is normal behavior for this wild metal.

• 🏭 The demand is real. The world has used more silver than it mines for five straight years now. Solar panels alone eat close to 17% of yearly demand, and AI data centers are a brand new buyer on top of that.

The Munch Take: If you’re buying for the next five to ten years, this is a far better entry than January was, and the ratio proves it. When that ratio sits at 72 and history says it averages 55 to 60, you’re buying silver on discount. If the ratio just returns to normal and gold holds steady, silver climbs a long way from here. But be honest about what you are buying. Silver is not a smooth ride, it is a rollercoaster with a great long-term story, and it will test your stomach along the way. Analysts see $80 to $100 by year-end, but they also called $121 a bargain once.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Wednesday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 🤑 Buy this stock tomorrow (Ad)

2. 👀 This stock just crashed 30% and is at a 1-year low.

3. 🇺🇲 The Supreme Court just issued a massive tariff refund.

4. 🏙️ NYC rent prices hit a new all-time high.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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