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☕️ GM Munchers! It’s the end of the week, and just like the S&P, I’m barely holding it together.

On today’s menu:

• 🚨Trump Tariffs Reinstated (For Now)

• 🇺🇲 How To Trade The USD

• ✅ Tasty Movers & Shakers

• 😬 Will Quantum Computing Break Bitcoin?

• 📉 U.S. Banks Are In Trouble

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

🚨Trump Tariffs Reinstated (For Now)

Just when you thought tariffs were out of the picture, the appeals court brought them back like a bad sequel.

A lower court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, saying he overstepped his authority. But within 24 hours, an appeals court hit the pause button on that ruling—meaning tariffs are technically back on while the legal drama plays out.

• The original case was filed by U.S. businesses hurt by import costs

• Court said Trump went too far using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act

• The appeals court now gives the White House breathing room to push their case

📈 Market reaction: Futures jumped initially, but gains fizzled as reality set in. Treasury yields rose (more on that below). Uncertainty = sticky volatility.

🧵 Plain-English Play:

• Expect more chop in risk assets until the courts (or Trump) make a final call

• Gold is worth watching as this back and forth led to a nice rally yesterday

• This is not over—but it’s already a mess

🛒 Costco Crushes Earnings

Costco ($COST) quietly doing what it does best: stacking cheddar.

• EPS: $4.28 vs $4.24 est

• Revenue: $63.2B vs $63.19B est

• Comparable sales +8%, e-comm +16%

With tariff fears spooking consumers, Costco’s low prices and bulk deals are a safe haven. Think of it as the treasury bond of retail.

🧵 Plain-English Play:

• The 2025 defensive play has worked so far this year (COST, WMT)

• Tariff drama may actually help Costco by pushing customers toward value shopping

• Stock is up 10% YTD vs S&P’s 1%

💸 30-Year Treasury Back Over 5%

The 30Y yield just broke back above 5% and traders noticed. Fast.

Why it matters:

• This is the highest long-term borrowing cost since October

• It means traders expect higher inflation and slower rate cuts

• Hurts rate-sensitive names (real estate, growth stocks), but strengthens USD

• It will also increase the deficit, as interest payments will climb. But it seems like nobody cares about fiscal responsibility…

🧵 Plain-English Play:

• Rate cuts are still not imminent

• Watch growth stocks and real-estate for sensitivity

• Dollar strength could cap commodity rallies, including Bitcoin

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

$DELL ( ▼ 2.08% ) Dell missed earnings but still managed to impress. Why? They beat on revenue and raised full-year profit guidance, thanks to—what else—AI. Apparently, servers that whisper “GPT” are selling like hotcakes.

$GAP ( ▼ 20.18% ) Gap posted strong earnings... and then tripped over a tariff-shaped rock. Execs warned that Trump’s denim tax could cost them $100M–$150M. They’re either shifting sourcing out of China or praying tariffs spare skinny jeans.

$AEO ( ▼ 1.97% ) Brutal quarter. They missed earnings, yanked their full-year guidance earlier this month, and the CEO called Q1 “a challenging period” (which is retail speak for “we got smoked”). The stock dropped 8%, and teens may finally be over mall-walking.

$RY ( ▲ 1.33% ) RBC hiked its dividend and announced a buyback, which sounds great… except the stock still fell. Why? Their forward guidance came with more caution tape than a crime scene.

FOREX

🇺🇲 How To Trade The US Dollar

If you’ve been watching the U.S. Dollar lately and thinking, “Why is this thing acting like my ex—strong one day, ghosting the next?”—you’re not alone.

The greenback is caught in a tug-of-war between rising yields, exploding debt, and tariff drama worthy of a Netflix mini-series.

Here’s what traders need to know:

🔺 Rising Yields ≠ Dollar Strength

The 30-year Treasury yield just jumped back above 5%, which should be bullish for the dollar. But the DXY actually dropped.

Why?

Because investors aren’t just looking at yields—they’re worried about why yields are rising (spoiler: it’s not good).

• Bond market is flashing risk: Higher yields = higher U.S. debt risk premium
• Fiscal worries: $200B in lost tariff revenue + deficit = foreign investors tapping out
• Result? USD weakens even as yields rise. Correlation = broken.

📉 Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Trust Issues

Trump’s tariff whiplash has destroyed confidence in U.S. fiscal leadership. Courts say the tariffs were illegal. Appeals say, “Nah, let’s bring them back.” Markets say, “We need a drink.”

• Trade uncertainty = global demand for USD drops
• Euro & Yen bid as safe haven alternatives
• Gold? Ripping (+9% YTD) as dollar cracks

👀 What to Watch Next:

•EUR/USD and USD/JPY price action → reacting to global central bank divergence
• 10Y-30Y Treasury yields → tell the truth about debt confidence
• DXY breakdown below 99.50 = alarm bells
• What Jerome Powell says about interest rates. Cuts = Weaker USD.

Long story short: The dollar’s no longer trading off yield alone. It’s trading off credibility. If Powell fumbles, or tariffs flip again, expect more downside. And yes, we’re still short USD… but my wife says that’s just because I hate commitment.

PROP FIRMS

🤑 Friday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 😬 Could quantum computing hack Bitcoin? Google just sent out a warning.

2. 🏠️ The median age of homebuyers is getting scary.

3. 👀 The amount of unrealized debt U.S banks are currency facing is off the charts and could be a disaster waiting to happen.

4. 🚗 Tesla’s self driving is getting crazier and crazier.

5. 🥚Eggs prices have dropped over 60%.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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