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On today’s menu:

• US Trade Deficit Breaks Records: What It Means for USD & Inflation 💵

• Fed Talks Inflation, Tariffs, and Trade: What Traders Need to Know Now ⚖️

• Fake Prop Firm Reviews Are On The Rise ❌ 

• Ford Beats Earnings, But Their Stock Crashes 🚗 

MARKET OUTLOOK

US Trade Deficit Breaks Records: What It Means for USD & Inflation 💵

The U.S. trade deficit just hit a jaw-dropping $1.2 trillion in 2024—the largest in history.

For context, that's like losing a trillion dollars and still having enough left over to buy naming rights to every stadium in the country.

But why should traders care about this ballooning gap?

Let’s break it down.

The Trade Deficit 101: Why It Matters 🔑 

The trade deficit means the U.S. is buying way more from other countries than it’s selling to them—basically, it’s the financial version of my wife at Target.

Every time the U.S. imports goods, it sends dollars abroad to pay for them, increasing the global supply of USD.

Normally, too much supply weakens a currency, making U.S. exports cheaper and more competitive—great for companies like Boeing.

But here’s the twist: in 2024, the USD stayed strong, defying expectations.

Why?

It’s the global reserve currency.

Everyone wants dollars, whether it’s for trade, savings, or rainy-day stockpiling.

The demand props up the USD, even when the trade deficit looks like it’s been hitting the all-you-can-eat buffet.

Inflation: The Trade Deficit’s Sneaky Sidekick ❌ 

But why does any of this matter?

Because the market has the attention span of a goldfish and right now, it's laser-focused on inflation.

Typically, a rising trade deficit adds fuel to the inflation fire.

Why?

Because the more the U.S. relies on imports, the more it’s at the mercy of global prices. 

If supply chain costs go up—or tariffs get slapped on—those higher costs get passed straight to consumers, kind of like how my streaming subscriptions quietly get more expensive every year.

For the Fed, this is a headache. 

If inflation stays sticky, rate cuts get pushed further down the road—or worse, we could be staring down more rate hikes.

That’s bad news for stocks and crypto but a dream scenario for safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF. 

If things get worse, don’t be surprised if traders start piling into those faster than people lining up for Black Friday deals.

How the USD is Holding Up (For Now)

Despite the record deficit, the USD is still standing strong—thanks to its role as the world’s reserve currency.

Everyone still needs dollars for trade and investment, keeping demand high.

But this imbalance—America consuming more than it produces—can’t last forever (.

If inflation keeps creeping up, the Fed’s dovish plans could disappear faster than my confidence in a 100x leveraged trade.

What This Means for Traders

📌 Watch the USD: If the trade deficit keeps growing, we could see long-term pressure on the greenback. Pairs like EUR/USD and USD/CAD are worth watching.

📌 Track Inflation Reports: Rising import costs could stall rate cuts, which means potential pain for stocks and crypto but strength for gold and JPY.

📌 Expect Volatility: The trade deficit is a macro wildcard, and its ripple effects on Fed policy and global trade could shake up markets.

The Bottom Line 🧵 

A record trade deficit isn’t just a stat—it’s a flashing warning sign for markets.

If inflation stays high, the Fed’s next move could shift quickly, making this a key data point for traders.

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MARKET NEWS

Fed Talks Inflation, Tariffs, and Trade: What Traders Need to Know Now ⚖️

The Federal Reserve just dropped its latest market-moving insights, covering inflation, tariffs, and trade, and traders everywhere should be paying attention.

Let’s break it down in 500 words or less—because we all have charts to stare at.

Inflation: Still Sticky, Still a Problem

The Fed’s stance?

Inflation is improving, but we’re not out of the woods yet.

Prices are cooling, but not fast enough for them to start slashing rates anytime soon.

📌 What This Means for Traders:

• The market wants rate cuts. The Fed isn’t in a rush to deliver them.

• Risk assets (stocks & crypto) could stay shaky if inflation stays elevated.

• Safe-haven plays like gold, JPY, and CHF remain solid hedges.

Bottom line: The Fed is waiting for “convincing evidence” that inflation is under control. Until then, don’t expect rate cuts to come easy.

Tariffs: Trump’s Wild Card in Play

If tariffs return, inflation could get a second wind.

President Trump has already paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days, but the ones on China are still in play.

The Fed is watching closely, as tariffs tend to push up prices and make their job even harder.

📌 Market Reaction So Far:

• USD/CAD dropped 2.73% after the Canada tariff pause.

• The DXY fell 1.4%, signaling relief in currency markets.

• Bitcoin spiked from $91K to $102K, but has since cooled off.

What Traders Need to Watch:

• If tariffs stay paused, risk assets could stabilize.

• If tariffs return, expect inflation concerns to resurface, and the Fed to stay hawkish.

• USD strength depends on how this trade drama unfolds.

The Bottom Line

The Fed is not in a rush to cut rates, especially with tariffs and trade uncertainty hanging over inflation.

Markets are adjusting, and traders should too.

📌 Key Takeaways:

✅ No guaranteed rate cuts yet—watch inflation data closely.
✅ Tariffs are the wildcard—keep an eye on USD pairs & trade-sensitive sectors.
✅ The trade deficit is massive—and the Fed knows it could keep inflation alive.

Markets may be calm for now, but with all these moving pieces, volatility is never far away.

Stay sharp, stay nimble, and trade what’s in front of you. 🚀

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. Fake prop firm reviews? Be careful who you trust. We’re seeing a lot of giveaways in exchange for reviews which is not allowed.

2. Ford beat their earnings expectations. But the stock dropped when the company announced they expect a tough year ahead.

3. RFK says if we were on a Bitcoin standard, we would all live “more abundant lives.” We couldn’t agree more!

🍪 Munchy Memes

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