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☕️ GM Munchers! Had a fantastic weekend doomscrolling geopolitical developments and pretending I understood military strategy. My wife asked what I learned. I said "the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint." She said "did you learn anything useful?" Absolutely not. Now let's see what Monday morning has in store for us, which I'm guessing rhymes with "bloodbath."

On today’s menu:

• 📉 Operation Epic Fury: The U.S. Attacks Iran

• 🤔 How This War Destroys (Or Saves) Your Portfolio

• 🏦 Banks Had Their Worst Day Since April 2025

• ✈️ Airline Stocks Get Destroyed

• ✍️ Berkshire’s New Shareholder Letter

Friday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

📉 Operation Epic Fury: The U.S. Attacks Iran

The thing everyone said was coming finally happened. The US and Israel launched a massive military strike on Iran over the weekend and killed their Supreme Leader.

The joint US-Israeli operation (they're calling it "Operation Epic Fury") successfully killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and roughly 40 senior military commanders. This wasn't a warning shot—this was decapitation.

Here’s everything you need to know:

1. The Casualties: Three US service members were killed and five others seriously wounded. Iran immediately fired back with waves of missiles and drones targeting Israel and US military bases, hitting cities like Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv.

2. The UAE Freeze: The UAE just shut down its stock markets for Monday and Tuesday. When a country closes its markets during a crisis, that's not caution. That's panic. They're trying to prevent total financial collapse and everyone pulling their money out at once.

3. The Strait of Hormuz Problem: This is the big one. The world's largest shipping companies—Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd—stopped sending ships through the Strait of Hormuz. There are currently170 container ships trapped in the Gulf right now with nowhere to go. Why does this matter? Because 20% of the world's oil flows through that narrow waterway.

The Munch Take: There's only one question: Is this quick like Venezuela, or is this a multi-year regime change war? Trump hates when stocks drop. He wants this done before markets open but it doesn’t look like that’s happening. If it's quick, markets could rally on the relief. But if it drags on for months with the Strait closed? Oil could hit $100, inflation explodes, and our portfolios will all be in shambles.

📈 How This War Destroys (Or Saves) Your Portfolio

So, what’s the game plan? War changes everything about how markets behave. This is how we’re thinking about things:

Oil Goes Vertical: As soon as futures opened last night, oil surged almost 12% to $75/barrel. If tensions stick around, we could be headed to $100 which is bad news for just about everybody.

Safe Haven Assets Moon: This one is obvious. When bombs are dropping, institutional money runs to safety:

• Gold & Silver: Already spiking. These are the classic "oh boy" hedges.

• US Dollar: Will surge because everybody likes to hold cash when they’re scared.

Why this destroys everything: Higher oil = higher gas prices = higher shipping costs = higher prices on literally everything = inflation comes roaring back = the Fed can't cut rates to help the economy.

The only winners? Defense stocks like Lockheed Martin, RTX, General Dynamics. These are about to print money. When wars go from "maybe" to "definitely happening," defence contractors get bought aggressively.

Everything Else Gets Crushed: Airlines (expensive jet fuel), consumer discretionary stocks (people stop spending), tech companies (nobody cares about software when missiles are flying)—expect brutal sell-offs.

The Munch Take: We’re guessing Monday’s going to be a sea of red for everything except defence, energy, and safe-haven metals. The real market direction won't be clear until we know if this is a one-week operation or a five-year war. Volatility is about to go absolutely insane.

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STOCKS

🏦 Banks Had Their Worst Day Since April 2025

Friday was brutal for bank stocks. The KBW Bank Index crashed 6% in a single afternoon. Goldman Sachs tanked 7.5%, Morgan Stanley dropped 6.2%.

Why Banks Got Destroyed:

1. The Double Pledging Scandal: A UK private credit firm called MFS went bankrupt. There's now a $1.1 billion collateral shortfall and banks are holding worthless IOUs.

2. The AI Job Loss Panic: A new report said AI will wipe out high-paying white-collar jobs. AKA, people who have massive mortgages and credit card debt. If they lose their jobs, they stop paying loans, and banks eat the losses.

📈 The Bull Case: Big banks have fortress balance sheets. One sketchy UK firm isn't sinking them.

📉 The Bear Case: If one firm was faking collateral, dozens more probably are. Plus, AI job displacement could trigger a real recession.

🤔 What Would Buffett Say? Hard to say. He loves banks with beefy balance sheets that print money but he hates hidden financial tricks.

The Munch Take: Banks are getting hit from two sides - fraud and AI fears. If you have a magic ball and think this is only temporary, this could be a great buying opportunity.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

😬 $BRK.A Berkshire Hathaway – Buffett officially handed over the keys and immediately the wheels fell off. Operating earnings face-planted 30% in his final quarter as their insurance division remembered what "underwriting losses" means (profits are down 54%). Also no stock buybacks announced, which is basically the corporate equivalent of ghosting your shareholders.

✈️ Airlines got destroyed Friday – United dumped 8.7%, American fell 6.24%, Delta dropped 6.82%. Oil prices are ripping higher thanks to Iran tensions, which means your flight to Cancun just got more expensive and airline stocks are about to have an even worse Monday.

🚀 SpaceX – Reportedly eyeing an IPO as soon as next month at a casual $1.75 trillion valuation. That's "trillion" with a T. For context, that's roughly the GDP of Canada.

💻 $DELL Absolutely ripped 21.93% on Friday after posting strong Q4 numbers. They're betting AI server revenue doubles by 2027, which Wall Street apparently loves more than I love my wife saying, “Babe, let’s try and save some money this month.” I’m doubtful either of these things will ever happen.

OUTLOOK

📊 Friday's Main Event: Jobs Data

This Friday is a big one. We have the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and the unemployment rate, which will give us a sense of how the economy is doing, or at least which numbers the Bureau of Labour Statistics will revise three months from now when nobody's paying attention.

What to Watch: 

1. Analysts expect 70,000 jobs to be created, down from 172,000 last month.

2. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%.

The Trade: If the jobs report shows the economy cooling (low job growth, flat wages), rate cut hopes come back and stocks rally. If it shows the economy's still running hot (strong job growth, rising wages), rate cuts are dead and stocks sell off.

Yes, good news is bad news. Yes, sometimes investing makes no sense.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Monday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. ✍️ The new Berkshire CEO just released his first annual letter.

2. 🚀 The Iran war is helping this stock.

3. 😬 An Amazon AWS center was bombed. Bad for the stock?

4. 👀 What $1 million will be worth in 30 years.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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