The SpaceX IPO Could Move More Than Just Stocks

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BREAKING NEWS

📊 Warren Buffett's Favorite Indicator Just Hit An All-Time High. Here’s What That Means.

The Buffett Indicator is a simple tool. It compares the total value of every publicly traded stock in America to the size of the entire US economy. Think of it like asking: is the stock market worth more or less than what the country actually produces? When stocks are worth more than the economy they run on, that is a warning sign.

The indicator peaked near 100% in the 1960s. It hit 150% at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000. Now? It’s sitting at 239%, the highest reading ever recorded in history. Warren Buffett once said that when this number hits 200%, you’re playing with fire. I guess that means we’re now playing with exploding lava.

What This Means For Traders: Overvalued markets tend to deliver lower long-term returns than fairly valued ones. The indicator does not tell you when to sell. It tells you that the margin for error is slim. Any bad news, whether from the Fed, geopolitics, or earnings, has more room to cause damage when stocks are priced this high. It’s why Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $397 billion in cash for a reason. It's worth thinking about.

Here is what traders and investors need to understand right now:

• At 239%, the market is not just a little overvalued. It’s more overvalued than at any point in recorded history. The dot-com bubble peaked at 150%. The 2008 financial crisis peaked lower than this. We are in completely uncharted territory.

• This same indicator was flashing red before the dot-com crash in 2000 and again before the financial crisis in 2008. Both times the market ignored it for a while. Both times the market eventually stopped ignoring it.

• This is not a prediction. Markets can stay expensive for a long time before they correct. But when the most reliable valuation tool in history hits its highest reading ever, it is worth knowing about it.

The Munch Take: Berkshire Hathaway has been quietly sitting on the biggest cash pile in corporate history, $397 billion, rather than buying stocks at these prices. When the company built entirely around the principle of buying great businesses at fair prices decides to hold cash instead, that is a message worth reading carefully.

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THE MARKET WATCH

🤖 OpenAI And Visa Just Teamed Up So Your AI Can Go Shopping For You.

Things are getting crazy and the next five years are going to be wild.

Visa ( $V ( ▼ 0.56% ) ) and OpenAI announced a partnership that lets AI agents make purchases and complete payments on behalf of users. The idea is simple. You tell your AI assistant to book a flight, order groceries, or renew a subscription. The AI does it. Visa processes the payment. You never touch a checkout screen.

This is not a science fiction concept. Visa says millions of consumers will be using AI agents to complete purchases by the 2026 holiday season. The infrastructure is being built right now.

Here is what makes this deal interesting for investors:

• This is not just a deal between two companies. Microsoft, IBM, Anthropic, Samsung, and Stripe are all part of the same initiative. The entire payments industry just collectively decided that AI agents are the next major way people spend money and moved fast to own the infrastructure underneath it.

• AI is already influencing what people buy. More than four in ten consumers say they have purchased a product an AI recommended in the past six months, and this is happening before AI shopping has truly gone mainstream.

• The deal also goes beyond shopping. AI agents will eventually purchase software tools, computing power, and services on their own within limits a business sets. A company's AI buying what it needs without a human clicking approve is not a distant concept. It’s where this is heading.

The Munch Take: Visa just gave AI a credit card. The checkout button as we know it is being quietly retired. Your AI assistant is going to do your shopping and Visa is going to process every transaction it makes. For Visa this is not a reinvention. It is the same business it has always run, just with a new type of customer doing the spending. Every new way humans have moved money in the last thirty years has run through Visa's network. AI spending money is just the next chapter of that same story. My wife heard that AI could do the grocery shopping and asked if it would also remember the specific list of things I always forget. I said probably yes. She seemed a little too happy with my answer.

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