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Every day before 6AM, Matthew Tuttle sits down at his trading desk in Connecticut to write to you about hedges, edges, asymmetric opportunities and themes in the market.

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CHART OF THE DAY

📉 We're Only Halfway There: Why The Panic Might Be Premature

The S&P 500 is down 8.5% and your group chat is already writing obituaries. Slow down.

The Historical Setup: Every midterm election year since 1950 has produced a drawdown. Every single one. The average peak-to-trough drop is 16.1%. The median is 15.6%. We are currently sitting at roughly half that. Half. The market hasn't even gotten to the average bad part yet, and people are acting like we're in 1929.

Why It Keeps Happening: Midterm years are politically messy by design. Policy uncertainty spikes. Spending freezes. Businesses wait. Investors hedge. The market prices in worst-case scenarios that rarely fully materialize, overshoots to the downside, and then snaps back hard when the fog clears. It's not magic. It's just the same movie playing on a four-year loop.

The Number That Actually Matters: The average 12-month forward return after midterm drawdowns is +36.4%. The median is +39.8%. Look at 1982. Down 13.5%, then up 66.1% the following year. Look at 1974. Down 35.9%, then up 44.4%. The pattern isn't subtle. It's practically waving at you.

Zero of the 19 midterm years since 1950 produced a negative 12-month forward return. Zero.

The Munch Take: The market is down 8.5% and we're only halfway through the average midterm drawdown. That's not a crash. That's a sale and I’m buying it up faster than when my wife sees throw pillows at 40% off. Is there already not enough room for me to sit on the couch? Yes. Does she care? No, no she doesn’t.

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Regards,

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CHART OF THE DAY

👀 $GOOG's RSI Just Hit A Level Not Seen Since The Financial Crisis. Yes. That One.

The RSI on $GOOG just printed 18.66. For context, anything below 30 is considered oversold. Below 20 is the kind of reading that makes technical analysts spill their coffee. The last time Google was here? 2008. When Lehman Brothers was turning off the lights.

What Is RSI, Quickly: The Relative Strength Index measures how fast and how hard a stock is getting hit. It runs from 0 to 100. Above 70 means overbought. Below 30 means oversold. Below 20 means someone somewhere is pressing the sell button with both hands and their forehead.

How We Got Here: $GOOG is down nearly 14% year-to-date. The stock has plunged below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages and is now hovering dangerously close to its 200-day moving average at around $263. That level is the line in the sand between a healthy correction and something that requires a stronger word.

📈 The Bull Case:

• $GOOG runs a $70 billion annual run rate for Cloud services and has 750 million monthly users on Gemini 3.0. The underlying business hasn't changed.

• Q1 2026 earnings drop April 23. Historically, stocks run up in anticipation of earnings calls. The coiled spring has a date.

• Wells Fargo is on record saying $GOOG will rise 40% from current levels. That's not a whisper. That's a conviction call.

• An RSI this low has historically produced sharp relief rallies in $GOOG. Every single time.

📉 The Bear Case:

• Being oversold doesn't mean the bleeding stops immediately. A stock can stay oversold longer than your patience holds out.

• The MACD is firmly bearish, Bollinger Bands are squeezing, and the stock is pinned near its lower band. Technically, nothing has turned yet.

• Regulatory risk is real and ongoing. An antitrust ruling goes the wrong way and the 200-day support becomes a memory.

• The broader market is still digesting macro chaos. $GOOG doesn't trade in a vacuum.

The Munch Take: An RSI of 18 on one of the most profitable companies on the planet is either the buying opportunity of the year or proof that the market has completely lost the plot. Possibly both. My wife asked me last night why I looked stressed and I said "Google." She said "Just use Bing." Gotta love her.

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