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☕️ Happy 2026, Munchers! Last year proved markets run on chaos, not logic—and your carefully researched thesis means absolutely nothing when Trump's tweeting at 3 AM.

2025's lesson?

Markets don't care about your feelings, your strategy, or the 47-page stock report you posted on Reddit. Here's what actually happened while we were all confidently wrong about everything:

2025 RECAP

🏛️ Trump 2.0: When Chaos Met Shrugs

Trump got sworn in January 20th and immediately went full chaos mode: threatening tariffs on everyone, blocking Venezuela's oil, tweeting policy like he's moderating a Reddit forum at 3 AM.

The market's reaction?

Violent panic in April... that lasted approximately five minutes. Traders quickly learned the TACO Trade: Trump Always Chickens Out.

Every Trump tweet = buying opportunity. Every tariff threat = fade the fear. The playbook was simple, and it worked.

Final score: S&P 500 up 17%. Nasdaq up 20%.

The Munch Take: We bought every dip this year and got rewarded. 2025's biggest lesson? Long-term, corporate earnings beat political theater. Trump tweets moved markets for hours. Apple's profit margins moved them for months. Trade accordingly.

🪙 Gold's Revenge Tour: From $2,600 to $4,400

Remember when Bitcoin maxis called gold "boomer rocks"? Yeah, about that.

Gold started 2025 at $2,600 and ended near $4,300—a 60% moonshot that made every "digital gold" argument look absolutely tragic. While Bitcoin was busy having its fourth identity crisis of the year, actual gold and silver were quietly becoming the best-performing asset class.

Why?

Central banks went full panic mode, buying gold like it was the last lifeboat on the Titanic. China, Poland, India—entire nations treating gold as strategic infrastructure, not just shiny jewelry.

The Breakdown:

• Bitcoin hit $126K, crashed to $80K, rallied, crashed again (classic)

• Gold just... kept climbing

• The "store of value" debate officially ended: nations pick gold, retail picks chaos

The Munch Take: Gold's winning because it's the "antidote to debt." Bitcoin's struggling because it's still viewed as a "speculative bet." We continue holding our Bitcoin position (down 11.89%, thanks for asking). In scary markets, people want insurance, not lottery tickets. We're holding Bitcoin long-term, but gold's currently the smart money play for capital preservation.

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ECONOMICS

📉 Inflation Finally Stopped Running Hot

The great inflation scare of 2025? Turned out to be more bark than bite—unless you're waiting for Costco to betray us all by raising that sacred $1.50 hot dog.

The numbers: Core CPI dropped to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021. Translation? Your grocery bill stopped climbing like it was training for Everest.

The Fed's response: Three rate cuts, dropping rates to 3.50%-3.75%. Cheap money flooded into markets like a broken dam, pushing stocks to multiple all-time highs.

The Munch Take: 2026's game plan depends entirely on the Fed. More rate cuts = rocket fuel for stocks. But watch the fine print—if those cuts come with rising unemployment and recession warnings, all bets are off. The line between "stimulus" and "oh god we're in trouble" is thinner than most traders think.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🎲 Prediction Markets: The New Gold Rush

If you ignored prediction markets in 2025, you missed the biggest trading revolution since someone invented the put option.

The explosion: Kalshi and Polymarket went from $100M to $13+ billion in volume. Then DraftKings, Coinbase, and Robinhood all launched their own versions because apparently betting on elections prints more money than actually fixing democracy.

Why it matters: One Trump tweet now moves dozens of markets instantly. Political news used to nudge stocks indirectly over days. Now it triggers real-time event contracts that settle within hours.

The Munch Take: This isn't your uncle's sports betting—it's weaponized sentiment trading. Early adopters are printing while skeptics debate whether it's "real." Learn this space or watch from the sidelines. Your call.

BIG DEALS

📺 Media's Slow-Motion Collapse

Warner Bros kept rejecting Paramount's desperate marriage proposals because nobody wants to inherit someone else's debt mountain just for "synergies."

Meanwhile, Netflix kept winning by simply not setting cash on fire—which apparently qualifies as genius-level strategy in modern media.

Quick Hits:

• $NKE crashed 12% despite beating earnings (China sales -17% = problem)

• $BBW Build-A-Bear up 1,269% over 5 years (stuffed animals outperformed our entire strategy)

• $TSLA Elon won his $140B pay package (Delaware judges: devastated)

A CENTURY CHANGE

🇯🇵 Japan Broke a 45-Year Streak (And Nobody Noticed Until It Was Too Late)

Japanese inflation surpassed US inflation for the first time since 1979. Sounds boring. It's not.

The Carry Trade Unwind: For decades, investors borrowed cheap Japanese Yen (basically free money at 0% rates) to buy higher-yielding assets like US stocks. It was the ultimate "free lunch" trade.

Now Japan's hiking rates while the US is cutting. That trade is reversing violently.

What Happens Next:

1. Yen strengthens (making loans expensive)

2. Investors panic-sell funded assets

3. US stocks, crypto, anything bought with borrowed Yen gets dumped

4. Markets puke for no "obvious" reason

The Munch Take: Watch USD/JPY like your account depends on it—because it might. If the Yen keeps strengthening, expect broad risk-off carnage.

🎊 The Bottom Line: Welcome to the Thunderdome

2025 delivered tariff threats, Fed cuts, recession scares, Bitcoin meltdowns, and stocks ripping to all-time highs anyway. Markets spent the year ignoring fundamentals and rewarding anyone brave enough to buy the chaos.

2026? Same circus, different clowns. We'll be here every morning breaking it down so you don't have to.

Thanks for letting us pollute your inbox this year. We've got massive things coming in 2026—including monthly stock picks, portfolio tracking, and more analysis that'll hopefully make you money (or at least entertain you while you lose it).

Happy New Year,
— Matthew & the Pip Munch team

P.S. What was YOUR biggest market moment of 2025? Hit reply and tell me—I actually read these, unlike my wife who stopped reading my trading takes after I called the top in February (I was wrong).

P.P.S. Go register for the FREE January trading competition. You can test your skills against other traders and even win a prop firm challenge so you can start making some money this year.

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