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BREAKING NEWS

🏦 Trump Wants Lower Rates. The Market Wants Higher Ones. Kevin Warsh Is Stuck In The Middle.

Trump went on Meet the Press this weekend and said flat out that there is "no reason to raise interest rates," pushing back hard against market expectations heading into Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting as the new Federal Reserve Chair on June 16 and 17. Trump's argument is simple. Good economy. Strong jobs. Why punish that with higher borrowing costs.

This is the most interesting drama in finance right now and it doesn’t involve a single stock ticker.

Here’s the situation: The Fed's job is to keep inflation under control. When the economy grows too fast, prices go up. To slow that down, the Fed raises interest rates, which makes borrowing more expensive and cools spending. Trump wants the opposite. He wants cheaper money to keep growth going and help manage government debt. Warsh now has to decide which direction to go. And whatever he decides, it will impact hundreds of millions of people.

Here’s why the market disagrees with Trump. Loudly.

• Futures traders currently price in a 61% chance that interest rates will be higher by the end of 2026 than they are today. That is the market betting directly against what the President just said on national television.

• Goldman Sachs scrapped its December 2026 rate-cut forecast after Friday's blowout jobs report and now expects no cuts before 2027. The world's most connected bank doesn’t think cheaper money is coming anytime soon.

• Warsh was sworn in just weeks ago and already faces surging inflation, rising mortgage rates, and historic lows in consumer sentiment. His first meeting is shaping up to be one of the most watched Fed decisions in years.

The Munch Take: Kevin Warsh has been on the job for about three weeks. His first major decision is whether to raise interest rates against the direct wishes of the President who appointed him. That is not a comfortable position for anyone. Trump said he would not have picked Warsh if he wanted rate hikes. Warsh has not said what he wants yet. The market has made its own bet. My wife asked me who Kevin Warsh was so I explained that he runs the Fed now. She asked if he’s the one who decides mortgage rates. I said essentially yes. She put her phone down and gave me her full attention for the first time in a while. That tells you just how big this meeting will be.

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THE MARKET WATCH

🪙 Saylor Sold 32 Bitcoin. Then Bought 1,550 More. The Man Is Built Different.

Michael Saylor is the CEO of Strategy, a company that stopped being a regular software business years ago and turned itself into the world's largest corporate Bitcoin buyer. His entire identity is built around one idea: buy Bitcoin and never stop. Last week that identity cracked for the first time in three years when Strategy quietly sold 32 Bitcoin to cover a dividend payment. The internet noticed immediately. Bitcoin dropped below $59,000 for the first time in 2026. The sell was worth $2.5 million. The damage to market confidence was worth considerably more.

Then this week he bought 1,550 Bitcoin for $101 million. That is 100 times more than what he sold. Bitcoin bounced back above $60,000. The crack got filled with a very large amount of concrete.

The buy was funded through the sale of 1.4 million shares of Strategy's own stock, which raised $181 million in net proceeds. Strategy used part of that to buy the Bitcoin and kept the rest to boost its cash reserve by $100 million, bringing total cash on hand to $1 billion. This was not a desperate move. It was a structured playbook being executed exactly as designed.

• Strategy holds 845,256 Bitcoin at an average price of $75,680 per coin against a current price of around $62,500. That is an $11 billion paper loss. Saylor just spent another $101 million adding to it. Most people would stop. He ordered more.

• Bitcoin hit $59,100 on June 5, its lowest point of 2026. That was the moment Saylor decided to buy. While everyone else was panicking, he was filling out a purchase order.

• There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin in existence. Strategy owns 845,256 of them. That is 4% of every Bitcoin that will ever exist. One company. Forever.

The Munch Take: Saylor sold 32 coins last week. Bitcoin dropped below $59,000. Everyone panicked. He came back this week and bought 1,550 more and Bitcoin climbed back above $60,000. Still way below its all-time high of $126,000 but we’ve got to start somewhere. We bought Bitcoin last week too. Down roughly 30% on our 2025 and 2026 positions, which is not a comfortable place to be. But our original purchase from 2023 around $35,000 is still sitting on a solid gain and we are not touching it. If Bitcoin dips below $60,000 again we will be buying more. Whether that is disciplined conviction or expensive stubbornness is a question we will answer when the price recovers. Saylor would probably just call it Tuesday.

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