📉 Your September Recap

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☕️ GM Munchers! We survived September. I got sick twice, a rock took out my windshield, and my portfolio took out my dignity, but my wife let me keep my side of the bed the whole month. I'm calling that a net win.

On today’s menu:

  • 📅 September Recap: The Month The Fed Finally Blinked

  • 📊 Inflation Cooled, But The Bond Market Didn't Get The Memo

  • 🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

  • 💾 Micron Just Proved The AI Boom Is Nowhere Near Over

  • 😬 Consumer Confidence Hits Lowest Since 2014

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500

7,651

-0.25%

Nasdaq

26,861

+0.24%

Dow Jones

50,906

-0.86%

Bitcoin

~$83,700

+0.11%

BREAKING NEWS

📅 September Recap: The Month The Fed Finally Blinked

Here's where we landed. September lived up to its nasty seasonal reputation, but with a twist. The Dow got hammered, falling about 4.3% for its worst month in a while. The S&P 500 slipped a modest 0.5%. But the Nasdaq actually rose 1.9%, powered by AI stocks that keep refusing to quit. That split tells you everything about this weird market: old-economy names struggled while anything AI-related kept partying.

The single biggest event was historic. The Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, flipping the entire script. Remember, at the start of 2026, everyone expected rate cuts this year. Instead, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is choosing to fight stubborn inflation and the market spent all month digesting that reversal.

  • 🎢 The crazy part: The Nasdaq actually hit a fresh all-time record high mid-month on an AI surge, then the mood soured fast as bond yields went haywire. Whiplash in a single 30-day stretch.

  • 📈 Bonds stole the show: The 30-year Treasury yield spiked to levels not seen in over two decades, financials were the worst sector, down 6.3% and mortgage rates jumped to 7.49%, crushing homebuyers.

  • 🥇 Gold's wild ride: The metal ripped to record highs for most of the month, then got smoked with a brutal 4% single-day drop near the end, though it's still up sharply for the year so far.

Now here's what matters moving forward. Inflation data on the final day of September actually came in softer than expected, which cooled things off. Odds of another October rate hike dropped to around 35%, though most traders still expect one more hike by December. In other words, the Fed's tightening story isn't over, it's just paused for a breath.

The Munch Take: September was a masterclass in why you don't panic over one ugly month. Bonds threw a tantrum, oil stayed hot from the Iran mess, and the Fed hiked, yet the AI trade still carried the Nasdaq to a record along the way. Here's the encouraging part: history shows the 12 months after a midterm election year have averaged over 20% returns for the S&P 500, and seasonality flips friendly heading into year-end. October, let's see what you've got.

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NEWS OF THE DAY

📊 Inflation Cooled, But The Bond Market Didn't Get The Memo

This is weird. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, called PCE, came in softer than expected yesterday. Headline inflation rose 3.4% in August, below the 3.7% economists expected, while the core reading (which strips out food and energy) held at 3.0%, its lowest level in six months. That's exactly the kind of "inflation is cooling" news the market has been begging for.

And it worked, at least on the Fed front. Odds of another rate hike at the Fed's October meeting cratered to around 35%, down from over 80% earlier in the month. Traders now expect the Fed to sit tight in October and maybe deliver just one more hike in December. Cooling prices means less pressure to keep tightening. So far, so good.

But here's the alarming part. The 10-year Treasury yield didn't fall on the good news. It climbed to about 5.3%, its highest level since 2002. That's genuinely strange, because soft inflation should push yields down, not up. When yields keep rising even as inflation cools, it usually signals investors are worried about something bigger, like the government's mountain of debt and how much borrowing is flooding the bond market.

The Munch Take: This is the puzzle worth watching. The Fed just got the cover it needed to pause, yet the bond market keeps demanding higher yields anyway. That disconnect tells you this isn't really about inflation anymore, it's about debt and supply. A cooler inflation number is a genuine positive, but a 10-year at 5.3% keeps mortgages painful and pressures stocks. Good news on one screen, warning light on the other. Watch those yields closely.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

🤑 Free Report: Free Report: 5 Best Stocks to Buy in October (via Cabot Wealth)

🍎 $AAPL Apple rose 1.10% after Bloomberg reported it plans to finally launch its long-awaited smart-home hub on October 13, alongside refreshed HomePod mini and Apple TV hardware. A fresh product lineup is exactly the kind of thing that gets Apple fans and investors buzzing again.

🖥️ $HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise gained 3.95% after raising its long-term networking growth outlook and landing a $1.2 billion AI infrastructure order from cloud provider Vultr. Another day, another company cashing in on the AI buildout.

💉 $MRNA Moderna dropped 5.35% after Citi downgraded it to Sell, arguing this year's massive rally has raced way ahead of what the cancer vaccine can realistically earn.

🤖 $META Meta slipped 1.84% as excitement around its Muse assistant ran into fresh competition from OpenAI, reviving worries about how much Meta will have to spend to protect its lead. Defending an AI crown isn't cheap, and investors know it.

🧸 $MAT Mattel fell 4.24% after Paramount Skydance poached its CEO.

STOCK OF THE DAY

💾 Micron Just Proved The AI Boom Is Nowhere Near Over

Micron reported earnings Yesterday, and the numbers are almost hard to believe. $MU posted record quarterly revenue of $54.2 billion, up a staggering 379% from a year ago, and its sixth straight record quarter in a row. Earnings crushed estimates, and gross margin hit a jaw-dropping 87%, meaning the company keeps roughly 87 cents of profit on every dollar of sales. For a chipmaker, that's absurd. The stock is up over 230% year to date, and yesterday’s report shows exactly why.

Here's what Micron actually makes and why it matters. Micron builds memory chips, specifically the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) that AI systems desperately need to feed data to Nvidia's processors. Demand is so intense that Micron's DRAM revenue alone jumped 343% and now makes up 73% of its business. Two-thirds of the company's total revenue now comes from data centers.

But the real headline isn't just Micron. It's what this says about AI overall.

  • 🚀 The guidance is the tell: Micron expects next quarter's revenue to hit $60-63 billion, far above what Wall Street wanted, and the CEO said fiscal 2027 will be "even stronger."

  • 🏭 Supply can't keep up: Micron is plowing $250 billion into new HBM factories, a clear signal it expects AI memory demand to keep outrunning supply for years.

  • 🔗 It confirms the whole ecosystem: Record memory demand means the AI buildout everyone's betting on is still accelerating, not slowing.

The Munch Take: This is the ultimate "sell the shovels" story playing out in real time. Everyone obsesses over Nvidia, but those chips are useless without Micron's memory feeding them, and Micron just told us demand is so hot it's sold out and building factories as fast as it can. That's a genuinely bullish signal for the entire AI trade, not just one stock. Here's our honest caveat, though: we don't chase a stock that's already up 230% in a year. The business is spectacular, but the easy money got made by whoever was early. We'd want a real pullback before touching it. Incredible company, incredible quarter, just not at these prices for us.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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