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- Your Ultimate Guide To Trading The US Election šŗš²
Your Ultimate Guide To Trading The US Election šŗš²
PLUS: Did this trader just receive a $103,000 prop firm payout? š¤Æ

Todayās edition is brought to you by Lark Funding - The Leader in Prop Firm Reliability. Use code NOV20 for 20% off all their challenges.
āļø GM Munchers! With the US election tomorrow, the markets are about as stable as a trader holding through a Fed rate announcementāgrab your popcorn, it's going to be a wild ride!
On todayās menu:
Your Ultimate Guide To Trading The US Election šŗš²
A New Prop Firm Promotion Launches ā
Enter Our $50,000 Challenge Account Giveaway š
Did This Trader Just Receive A $103,000 Payout? š¤Æ
Your Ultimate Guide To Trading The US Election šŗš²
Tomorrowās the big day, folksāthe US election is here, and the markets are gearing up for what could be a rollercoaster of epic proportions. š¢
Forget the Super Bowlāthis is the real main event. Two years of nonstop campaigning, hundreds of millions spent, and now it all comes down to this.
Maybe youāre not as hyped as we are, but I bet youāre at least pumped about one thing: the chance to make some money. š¤
So, whether youāre a die-hard scalper ready to hit every tick or just planning to watch the fireworks from the sidelines, there are some smart ways to approach this.
Letās break down whatās ahead and how you might be able to profit (without losing your shirt).
1/ Trump vs. Kamala: Who Moves the Market More?
In one corner, we have Trump, the tax-cutting, deregulating candidate whoās already been priced into the market as the favourite. The markets know him, they know his policies, and Wall Street's generally bullish on his economic stance.
In the other corner, weāve got Kamala Harris. As Vice President, sheās no stranger to the big stage, but she hasnāt had the top job before. A Kamala win could bring what weāre calling the āKamala Shock.ā Itās unexpected, and the markets donāt like surprises. If she takes it, brace for potential volatility.
The bottom line?
A Trump victory could lead to a calmer reaction since heās already priced in, while a Kamala win might make things a little wilder as traders scramble to adjust.
2/ What History Tells Us About Market Reactions š
If past elections are any guide, hereās what usually happens after votes are counted:
1 Week After: Markets tend to be volatile as investors process the results. Think of it as the āmorning afterā phase where everyoneās trying to piece together what happened.
1 Month After: By this point, the initial reaction is over, and markets either stabilize or follow the direction set by the new (or returning) administrationās promises.
3 Months After: Now weāre in āpolicy mode,ā where the winnerās policies begin to materialize, and markets get a clearer picture of whatās to come. And by this point, itās likely that the market has already turned itās attention to something else, like interest rate cuts.
Historically, markets donāt necessarily tank or surge just because of an election, but thereās almost always movement in the short term.
š Itās less about who wins and more about how the results align with expectations.
3/ How to Profit from Election Night š
If youāre thinking about capitalizing on the election, hereās a rundown of possible scenarios (not financial advice, weāre just your friendly neighbourhood trading buddy sharing ideas for educational purposes š):
The Trump Rally: A Trump win is considered bullish for the economy. Expect sectors like energy and finance to get a lift. But, hereās the twist: if everyone piles into risk assets like stocks and crypto, the USD might actually drop. A stronger economy might mean less demand for the safe-haven Dollar.
The Kamala Shock: With Trump priced in, a Kamala win would surprise the markets. Expect a spike in volatility. Weāre talking about sudden moves in equities, crypto, and possibly gold as traders adjust their positions. If Kamala takes it, keep an eye on defensive sectors like healthcare and utilitiesāanything seen as āsafeā could see inflows.
Trading the Sentiment, Not the Politics: Remember, itās less about who you personally prefer and more about the sentiment. If itās risk-on (Trump), equities and crypto might rally, with USD taking a hit. If itās risk-off (Kamala), safe-haven assets like gold and the Dollar could see some action.
4/ Prediction Markets: Where Moneyās at Stake šø
One of the most interesting plays? Prediction markets, specifically Polymarket, which is currently showing Trump as the favorite at 58-42.
Unlike traditional markets, prediction markets let you bet directly on the outcome, and theyāll be extremely volatile on election night.
Weāre talking about wild swings that could make your regular trading pair look tame.
With over $3 billion already bet on this election, itās the place to be if youāre looking for instant action. š§Ø

5/ All Eyes on Pennsylvania š
If youāre staying up late to watch the results roll in, make sure youāve got your eyes glued to Pennsylvania. This state is expected to be a major decider, and swings here could impact the entire marketās reaction.
As the votes come in from Pennsylvania, weāll get a clearer idea of whoās leading the general election, and that will likely set the tone for the night.
If things get close, prepare for a rollercoaster.
6/ Trading Strategy: Keep Your Head in the Game š§
Letās talk trading strategy. Election night is unlike any other event, and youāll want to approach it with caution.
Hereās a playbook to keep you sharp:
Remember the Inverse Relationship: Trumpās bullish stance on the economy might make stocks and crypto pop, which usually means a weaker Dollar. If you see equities and Bitcoin rising, expect USD to feel the heat. So donāt go buying the Dollar just because itās the āsafe-havenā currency.
Stick to Pending Orders: Market orders during high volatility are a recipe for disaster. Spreads can widen, slippage can spike, and that āperfect entryā can become a nightmare. I use pending orders to control my entries and avoid getting caught in the noise.
Only A+ Setups: This isnāt the night to be experimenting. Stick to trades that align with your plan, and donāt feel pressured to jump in just because the marketās moving. If the setup isnāt top-notch, Iāll be sitting on my hands.
Sidelines Are an Option: Sometimes, the best trade is no trade at all. If things get too wild or youāre second-guessing, take a step back. Thereās no shame in watching from the sidelines and preserving capital.
TL;DR: Election Night Game Plan
Trump Win: Expect equities and crypto to rally, potentially dragging the Dollar down.
Kamala Win: Buckle up for volatility, with safe-haven assets like gold and the Dollar in play.
Polymarket: Track this prediction market if youāre looking for fast-action bets.
Key State: Pennsylvania is the one to watch for market-moving updates.
Trading Tips: Use pending orders, only take A+ setups, and donāt be afraid to stay on the sidelines.
Good luck, and may the pips be ever in your favor. š
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A New Giveaway! š
Itās barely November, but that doesnāt matter.
Weāre already feeling the holiday cheer by launching a new $50,000 2-Step Challenge account giveaway! š
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āļø Pre-Market Fuel
A futures prop firm just processed a $103,000 payout. 𤯠This has to be one of the largest payouts ever.
Warren Buffett keeps selling. š Their cash pile is now over $300 billion. Is this a bad sign?
šŖ Munchy Memes
Kamalaās economy is so mad, mfs need two jobs just to get by.
ā johnny maga (@_johnnymaga)
10:34 PM ⢠Oct 30, 2024
We've all been there š
ā Pip Munch (@pip_munch)
12:02 PM ⢠Nov 4, 2024
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